The Scottish #IndyRef


My first reaction was that market doesn’t care about my take so why would I have one. Each day, I attempt to approach the markets with humility because I don’t want to fall in love with a bias that will beholden me to a position. But if I’m really honest with myself, of course I have a take on the referendum!

I don’t think the Scots will go through with it. And if I’m right the market will flail about for a few hours, or days, and go back to trading the status quo. And the stays quo is that the economy is not as strong as it was a year ago. Wage growth, the new forward guidance, is tepid at best. No matter what Carney says, I don’t think he can convince a majority of the MPC to raise internet rates until there is more proof of inflation beyond house prices. In fact, the weakness in commodities actually buys the BoE some time as energy prices are even less of a drag on inflation than they’ve ever been before.

If the Scots prove me wrong and vote in independence, then the pound sterling will weaken fast and sharp across the board. A currency crisis will literally materialize in a matter of hours as markets deal with a sudden GBP currency union or a new Scottish currency.

So, in conclusion, my take is bearish GBP. But I know the markets can do whatever they want to do. So whatever you do with this “insight”, please do mange your risks appropriately and trade what you see.

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