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ON THE AIR with PreMarket Prep Show

Last month, I had the opportunity to speak with Benzinga about its inaugural Women’s Wealth Forum. While we focus on my unique journey growing in this business, it was my first time speaking live with Jason Raznick, founder of Benzinga. I first met Jason back in 2009/10 at the MoneyShow Conference in New York. We would later bumped into each a few times at Stocktoberfest and other events. It’s been cool to see one another grow in our lanes and put in the work to grow your presence and passion into a successful career. Thanks guys for the chat!

ON THE AIR with F.A.C.E.

Early this week, I was back on the air with Dale Pinkert. In front of hundreds of live traders in the audience, I walked through my rationale for guppy, a bullish cable, a bearish euro and a continued dumping of the Canadian dollar:

 

There are ebbs and flows to every market. Trade what you see. Invest with a pro. [sponsored]

Will FB kill $FB

The stock was up over $150 last week and that’s if you caught it when it made all-time highs above $30. Of course, we all know that $FB fell much lower just before making what has become the first in a series of all-time highs. That drop in $FB took it below its IPO price. In the good old days of 2013, Facebook gave FB bulls the green light as it proved that it could, and will, monetize its mobile native app. And with that, $FB exploded. It’s been an incredible run since those 2013 highs. If you are like me, you grew up in social media on Twitter. Though I resisted, once I got on Facebook, I got it. And I get it. I spend such an inordinate amount of time on Facebook that I do not allow its notifications to light up my phone. Or send me email, even though those always seem to leak through. So $FB has made a lot of people a lot of money.

This rally has been so great because Facebook has been very good for $FB. And we took some profits in 2017 as a result. But this news about Cambridge Analytica is something a little more sinister. While $FB doesn’t give a fuck about you, we still do hold Facebook to a much higher standard of civility and responsibility. Because I use Facebook. A great deal. We all do. I don’t mind them have my data as long as they keep it safe. Make some money for your efforts, sure, but don’t sell your soul. That’s what this trump-russia-facebook triangle feels like. But maybe Facebook had no idea they were selling data to foreign spies. But if it comes out that they did, the markets may not take that news so lightly and $FB can sell off.

My client told me that we may not know if prices fall until the release of the next financial report. But the price action told us far sooner that that. This was the chart yesterday (Monday close).

FB DAILY CHART

$FB has opened today below $168. The Fibs are coming up next. To be sure, markets will let Facebook know that it has a responsibility to be responsible. Which, of course, is very subjective. There are ebbs and flows to every market. Trade what you see.

Or learn with me. And invest with a pro. [sponsored]

Equities Get Healthy

The stock market finally took a hit. The S&P 500 ($SPX) was down as low as 32% from the recent highs this year. A dip that finally really mattered still found buyers and equities attempted to move higher last week. However, 2 weeks ago it the first time that a buying frenzy after a big dip did not result in a new high (a price higher than the previous high price). This is a technical signal that may foretell a move much lower can occur for the U.S. stock market ($SPX).

 

SP500 daily chart

Now before you starting getting hysterical about lower stock prices, your long-term perspective becomes so critical when assessing whether current price action should actually prompt a response in your portfolio. If you positioned in this blue area, then this recent dip probably doesn’t bother you. However, if you have new money to put to work, it is important to pay attention to where equities make their next move.

SP500 monthly chart

 

As the Federal Reserve welcomes a new chairman and the markets grapple with possible trade wars and a ballooning fiscal deficit, make a plan for what to do with a $SPX chart at much lower levels. Many fund managers and traders alike, myself included, have been waiting patiently for equities to get healthy again. But trying to catch a bottom in a correction this deep will feel scary. However, at the right levels, swing traders will be right back in these markets again. The buyers will return. Be healthy, and smart, enough to see the opportunities.

There are ebbs and flows to every market. Trade what you see. Invest with a pro. [sponsored]

Buy The Right Dollar

The $GBPNZD opened the new trading week challenging major support around the 1.8931 level. It even managed to crack below the staunch zone of support as the new trading week got underway. This support level has been challenged by the $GBPNZD numerous times in just the past 6 weeks. But if you look out to the daily chart, the 1.8931 level was also important support back in December 2017. As one of those old trading adages go,

“If price is knocking along a certain level long enough, eventually something gotta give”

This is an interesting time in market fundamentals. The markets are starting to pay more attention to interest rates. As political uncertainty increases, the markets seem to be reverting to the familiar: its relationship with interest rates. With one of the highest interest rates of the major currencies, the New Zealand dollar has been quietly finding buyers on every dip. Even as the Great British pound has found new strength against the Canadian and Australian dollars, it is has not enjoyed the same strength versus the New Zealand dollar.

gbpnzd 4 hour chart

Since the market opened this week, the $GBPNZD has bounced off this support zone to rally over 100 pips during the Monday trading session. Now that the $GBPNZD is back at the top of its range, kiwi buyers may step here. Watch for $GBPNZD range traders to also step in as 1.9080 has become a first level of resistance for rallies in the $GBPNZD. A break above 1.9080 opens the way to the resistance level at 1.9200.

However, as the fundamentals continue to favor the higher-yielding currencies, watch the $GBPNZD within this range. A final crack below the support zone, will introduce fresh buying momentum in the New Zealand dollar and usher in a deeper correction of the recent $GBPNZD rally (on the bigger timeframes).

Twitter GOLD?

I thank God for my follows. I follow great people on twitter. Reading through the news and got this awesome retweet from @AdamPosen:

Read the entire thread. And then let’s talk about the Canadian dollar. The loonie is swooning. It’s been weak against the Great British pound all year. But today’s market open weakness seems buttressed after the announcement of the trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs.

GBPCAD monthly chart

The $GBPCAD hit new highs today. New highs that are plowing through the 123% Fibonacci extension and a psychological level at 1.80. Today’s new highs are finally confirming the near-double bottom off last year’s (2017) low.

And to really look at the engine of this new shift in Canadian fundamentals, a girl has to look at the $USDCAD. Of course, there are new highs there too.

usdcad monthly chart

Momentum has plenty of room to build. And these are large timeframes. Of course, price won’t move in a straight line but we like the trend potential in the loonie.

There are ebbs and flows to every market. Trade what you see. Invest with a pro.