Market commentary and market analysis. This is really my view, sometimes…
Seasonality is an interesting trading edge. Like correlation, it works until it doesn’t. Taking a closer look at the $GBPUSD seasonality pattern: the pair rallies for the month of April, finds a top at the end of April, and sells off for the month of May. It’s pretty incredible the reliability of this pattern. We …
Election jitters played out in trading last week as the GBP weakened across the board. Economists and financial media took to extreme headlines about sterling volatility spiking due to the uncertainty surrounding this particular general election cycle. The GBP did slide but election jitters did not take the GBP under siege. Rather, the Bank of …
To be bearish is to recognize that $GBPUSD is, for now, simply correcting. Given the bull trend, cable is free to tumble quite a bit if she wants to and still be a bullish bitch back to 1.7000. This large psychological level still remains on target for bulls because GBP has the economy and central …
$GBPUSD has staged such an impressive rally in the month of April. The UK fundamentals have established a trend of a solid recovery. The “misses” this week are still good numbers. GDP and the PMIs showed growth so the UK economy continues to recover. This trend has given life to sterling especially versus the USD …
$GBPUSD will start 2014 at highs not seen in several years. Taking out the big psychological level at 1.65 is a big deal and it wouldn’t be surprising to see price move higher on spike rallies. Despite these levels, cable still remains in a range on the weekly chart. Also consider that $GBPUSD has always …
I was back on FXStreet’s Live Analysis Room with @ForexStopHunter on Friday talking about recent developments in my favorite GBP pairs. I put some interesting ideas out there around $GBPUSD seasonality in December and the real implications of the RBA intervention on $GBPAUD vs $AUDUSD. Video streaming by Ustream
It’s the last week of the month. I’ve been playing this seasonality trend in cable since April. Admittedly, May has been a much better month for me. But, alas, the edge is almost over. $GBPUSD has put in a bottom at the end of May for the past 3 years. Why should this May be …
The $GBPUSD is now 2 weeks into May and its seasonality trend is still in play. These are the times traders sit on their hands and do nothing to allow their winners to run. Sell in May has never rang so true. Fundamentally, BoE Governor King used his final inflation report to start the exits …
Continue reading “Sterling Digest, May 22 2013: King starts the exit”
Cable ended April hitting the 50% Fibonacci retracement level to the PIP. Pretty impressive for a 30-day rally. As $GBPUSD tops out at 1.5606, it begins the 1st week of May with a lower high (as of this writing). Seasonality trends would have traders note that cable has topped out in April each of the …
Continue reading “Sterling Digest, May 7 2013: April tops, May bottoms”
What a difference a day makes. Profits were quickly taken this morning as sterling falls back across the board. The stark contrast to yesterday’s bullishness is what markets are made of. FIVE central bank decisions in a week will do that. RBA killed the AUD to kick off this Tuesday trading session. A neutral RBA …