Central Bank Divergence

ECB cutting rates this month was an aggressive move when most central banks have taken to jawboning under the guise of forward guidance. Action by the ECB definitely puts it squarely in dovish camp and the leader of the pack.The ECB and the RBA are firmly dovish having both cut interest rates already this year and keeping the door to accommodation open. The RBNZ and BoJ are biased dovish preferring to talk down it’s currency rather than take real action. The BoE and BoC are biased hawkish as they awaits for its recovering economies to, well, recover. The $FED, however, leads the hawks with a broken taper promise. However, the chairman-elect may move the $FED away from the edge and back to loving embrace of the doves. LOL. Time will tell.

The Bank of England has been a big game changer for sterling since Carney has taken the helm. I think the market always knew he would bring change to the BoE. However, I believe the market believed Carney would be bearish for sterling. But the markets have perceived the BoE to be hawkish for quite some time thanks, in large part, to UK economic data that have  been surprisingly sustainable and robust since the summer. Once Carney set forward guidance in August, the data has kept the BoE on hold with monetary policy. This month, Carney has been outright hawkish in his delivery of the inflation report and following television debut. You have to wonder at his cleverness since those dovish comments as Governor-elect over a year ago.

But you have to love this new landscape. These divergences are what trends are made of! With the end of 2013 fast approaching, we could see these divergences manifest in new trends as holiday volatility increases in the markets. Already we see a massive breakout in the $GBPAUD and EURGBP as these pairs best reflect these central bank divergences. $GBPUSD is a battle of the hawks as moves remain rangebound. Watch how other pairs act as the divergences in central banks become more apparent.


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