Innovations coming up daily have brought about decline in demand for crude oil across the world generally. We are now entering the most active months of the hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean. Even though weather scientists are forecasting that the 2018 hurricane season will not be nearly as active as 2017 and 2016, the Hurricane Gordon is forecasted to be heavy in October.
It has come to my understanding that not all hurricanes enter the Gulf of Mexico, but when they do, many oil companies will take precautions and shut down their offshore production and evacuate personnel before the hurricane hits. A trace of Hurricane Gordon, which came through the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday, forced producers to shut down 9.23% of oil production in the Gulf and 9.06% of natural gas production from the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Over 45% of the total U.S. refining capacity is located in the Gulf. Hurricanes and other storms can cause flooding, sometimes severe, that has caused refineries to shut down. In 2017, the largest refinery in the United States, Saudi Aramco-owned Motiva, shut down for 2 weeks after Hurricane Harvey causing severe flooding in Port Arthur, Texas. Other refineries only closed for a few days during and after Hurricane Harvey.
Meanwhile, there is already a breakout downward both with the RSI and Ichimoku. It is presently around $69 to a barrel and might find a new support at $65. For the most part of August, 2018, the price of crude oil was on the rise. Sellers might become active due to these indicators.
Sources: Hurricane storm threat (Investing.com)
Crude Oil Price Drops (CNBC.com)