fbpx

Category: The Sterling Digest

The Sterling Digest now as a weekly summation of news to consider when trading GBP pairs, in particular.

Posted on

Sterling Digest, April 18 2012: when fundies turn hawkish

£20,bank of England
Is sterling strength here to stay?

Sterling comes alive this week after core UK CPI ticked higher-than-expected yesterday and a known BoE dove turns hawkish today. While economic data is important and moves the currency, the 2 most important fundamental pieces to watch concerning sterling are inflation and the Bank of England’s reaction to it. This week, both turned hawkish. If this becomes a trend, we could see sterling strength remain with a $GBPUSD that is above 1.60 and a $EURGBP at 0.80.

Image credit

Posted on

Sterling Digest, April 13, 2012: the China effect

China and the paradox of prosperity, The Economist
What effect will China have on sterling?

If there were any doubts to China’s ability to move the markets now, there shouldn’t be. China’s soft data release very early in the Friday session has plagued risk currencies like the commodity currencies and the euro. And $GBPUSD and $GBPJPY remain weak as risk aversion flows strengthen the USD and JPY across the board.

Image credit

Posted on

Sterling Digest, April 11, 2012: central bank fodder

Central bank balance sheets versus the SP500
Central banks at work

The 2 most active central banks last year are still drawing lots of attention from market participants. Both the BoJ and SNB are major threats of more intervention in the forex markets in 2012. Personally, I am not a fan of trading directly with or against central banks so I stay away from CHF or JPY pairs. However, as so aptly put in Credit Writedowns (below), even investors without CHF exposure should still follow this story. With so much central bank rhetoric, when will the market finally take notice?

Image credit

Posted on

Sterling Digest, April 10, 2012: accommodating growth

A new twist in Myanmar
Arm twisting has also forced the UK to forge new international relationships

Sterling has been mixed bag as European traders came back to the markets today after a long Easter weekend. Currency pairs should trade very technically during this relatively quiet news week out of the UK.

Image credit

 

 

Posted on

Sterling Digest, April 6, 2012: the big miss

Lightning
Holiday markets

The one flash of life was NFP as the markets hardly ticked beyond that this Good Friday. While most traders deservedly enjoyed a much longer weekend, today’s thin markets set the perfect stage for a US NFP miss. Very unexpected given the string of positive US data this week but also very much aligned with what Bernanke & Co. having been saying long after those minutes were recorded. The big miss leaves markets gobsmacked for  traders’ return after Easter not far from their NFP-induced peaks.

Image credit

 

 

Posted on

Sterling Digest, April 5 2012: the herd shows itself

coins in water
Sterling down the drain...for the moment

Last week, the economic data built the case for a possible double-dip recession. This week, the PMI trifecta (industrial, construction, & services) came out quite strong. However, the bulls never rallied $GBPUSD back above 1.60. Then today we get dismal manufacturing and industrial production numbers and $GBPUSD takes a real hit in sentiment as price breaks to new lows for the week. $GBPCAD, $GBPAUD, and $GBPNZD are all lower on the week as well. Anytime the market shows its true bias, both technically and in reaction to fundamentals, you have to go with the herd. And sterling bears are keen on taking it lower short-term.

Image credit

 

 

Posted on

Sterling Digest: April 4, 2012

A Bank of England Old One Pound Banknote
Looking ahead to the BoE

UK PMI numbers continue to surprise to the upside this week. While this string of positive data is not enough to declare a robust recovery in the UK, it certainly can be enough to keep the Bank of England from moving on monetary policy tomorrow and allow them to wait-and-see. With ECB out of the way today, traders look ahead to tomorrow’s BoE interest rate announcement.

Image credit

Posted on

Sterling Digest: April 3, 2012

US Dollars
Today was all about the greenback baby

The $FED completely changed the game. While Bernanke had been on the circuit implying more QE was on deck, the minutes revealed a much more hawkish Federal Reserve. And as a result, the USD rallied across the board. Now the question going forward is whether the USD is really gaining strength or are traders being given a USD-selling opportunity?

Image credit

Posted on

Sterling Digest: April 2, 2012

NASA PICTURE OF UK
The United Kingdom/Britain/England/UK

Sterling was very mixed bag in Monday trading despite stronger-than-expected manufacturing numbers out of the UK. GBP was able to push higher against the euro and greenback but lost a lot of ground versus the aussie, kiwi, and loonie. Traders are really looking ahead to the Bank of England later this week on Friday. While the BoE is expected to hold on monetary policy, poor economic data released in March has some market participants speculating that the BoE needs to increase QE now rather than later. However, trickle of positive news in the last few days may be enough justification the BoE needs to stay put for now.

Image credit

Posted on

Sterling Digest: March 30, 2012


If central banks allow gold to become money, how would they enact QE??

A choppy week has given away to sterling strength with $GBPUSD breaking above the major psychological level at 1.60. Traders say month end flows are to blame for sterling strength when its fundamentals hold a more ominous outlook for the currency. BoE next week will continue these breakouts and trigger some profit-taking as most pairs sit GBP bullish at key levels into the weekend …despite the headlines.

Image credit

Proudly powered by WordPress