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The Dangers of Bull-Traps and Bear-Traps

A bull-trap is a false signal that shows a decreasing trend in a stock, currency, index, or other financial instrument has reversed and is now heading upwards, when in fact, the value of the security will continue to fall. Traders or investors that acted on the buy signal generates losses on resulting long positions.

A bear-trap on the other hand is a technical pattern that occurs when the performance of a stock, index or other financial instruments incorrectly signals a reversal of a rising price trend. The trap is thus a false reversal of a declining price trend.

Many traders especially lose money after being caught up in traps. Many investors have lost huge funds in traps. Traps sometimes might take months or years if a reversal occurs at all. Traps affect the mental health of traders and investors.

Avoiding Traps In Trading

  1. Practise risk management
  2. Never ignore the long-time patterns before making entries.
  3. Don’t try to be too early, no one awards you for being the first trader.
  4. Never get into a trade when market squeezes.
  5. Don’t trade the initial breakout, watch out for the next few candlesticks to confirm.
  6. Trade in the direction of the main trend

Taking a look at the BTC chart. In December 2020, the bulls broke out the initial resistance level in 2017 at $19,700. Ever since this breakout occurred, the price is yet to reverse. The closest reversal occurred in June 2021 when the price reached $28,300. I want to believe most BTC bears who shorted BTC in December 2020 must have been liquidated.

Also, the bulls reached a new all-time high in April 2021 at $64,700. Price reversed to $28,300 in June 2021. The bulls are back into more action as the price is currently at $57,200. Between February and May 2021, each time price opens above $57,000, it never closes above the $57,000. Traders and investors who invested above $57,000 must have been trapped. If the price reaches an all-time high, it ceases to be a bull trap.

Exit The Euro

Chart: the deleveraging process is desynchronized and heterogeneous

It has to be a very scary thing when your banks, companies, households and even governments can’t pay down its debt. Can a currency be made worthless based on its debt load in a world where money is electronic and can be minted with a push of a button? We just may soon find out. Exit the euro.

Enter The Chaos Index

the Chaos Index
Is this for real?!

Apparently, there are more riots and protests against the goverment in countries with poor or declining economies. In fact,

The strong link between unrest and austerity suggests that cutting expenditures in times of crisis may be even harder than previously thought…To avoid the spectre of default and a downward spiral of collapsing output, lower tax revenue, and a rising wave of unrest – an austerity trap – governments have to act more cautiously in good times. They need to borrow less and keep taxes high even if public debt is falling in a period of expansion.

This is hardly news. As long as credit rating agencies rule the world, governments are more interested in pleasing them as opposed to its own citizens. Expect more Arab Springs and Occupys as food and energy prices rise with unemployment in countries with strict austerity measures. And the markets won’t be forgiving. Look no further than Europe.

 

Source: This Chart Predicts Rising Violence And Unrest Around The World (Business Insider)