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Sterling Digest: March 28, 2012

Kal's Cartoon on The Economist
All eyes on oil

Sterling manages to stage a decent correction in today’s trading session. Yet, it is the AUD taking it on the chin today as it suffers from a double whammy of commodities weakness and USD strength. It was the only currency pair that sterling rallied higher against without much pullback. The timing with now confirmed Chinese softness (causing the commodities weakness) gives the $GBPAUD legs to run higher.

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Timing Is The Only Thing

Too many people say “I was too early on that one” to reassure themselves that they were right after all. The bottom line, though, is: if you didn’t make money, you weren’t right. So stop lying to yourself and work on your timing!

Great read over at Richard Todd’s blog on timing. Timing is something I strive to improve upon every time I’m in the market. I realized early in my trading that the entry of a trade is just as important as the exit. I personally feel it is more important. Todd’s post got me thinking about what it is I do to improve the timing in my trading.

  1. Use tighter stops. This is a recent change I made about a year ago. I know it is very counterintuitive and even ill-advised. But tight stops don’t allow you to be lazy when entering markets. There can’t be any “Oh I’ll just get in right here.” There must be a reason for every trade and that reason is your price. A trade is triggered because price has reacted a certain way at a specific chart level. It is at that level where we would love to get in at. It is the level that will maximize our profitability. An early entry is too impatient. Impatience is never a good way to trade. A late entry is a missed entry. Missed trades simply don’t pay which can be okay but refer to the above quote.
  2. Use limit orders. Trading live in the market can be exhilarating and boring. Both environments have positives and negatives but they have one thing in common. They both affect timing. In a volatile market, some traders get an itchy finger pulling triggers as fast as the market can oscillate. In a slow market, impatience rears as a trader enters a trade just to trade. Using orders allows me to time my entries to a certain extent as I let the market come to me. If the market never comes to me, then it’s time for a new setup and a new trade. With capital preserved, I can go into that next trade with a clear head.
  3. Using profit targets. There is aplethora of literature out there about using stops. Far less is dedicated to using limit orders to set profit targets. Many traders will place a stop but never set a profit target. Without a hard profit target set, the trader may be away from the screens when the market finally does move in her direction. Or worse, the trader hesitates, or simply refuses, to take profits off the table. Use hard (tight) stops. And use hard targets.

Todd says timing is everything. I agree, and take it further. Timing is the only thing.

Source: Timing Is Everything (blog.richardtodd.name)

Sterling Digest: March 27, 2012

Britain's budget for global business
Weak economy, strong sterling. Go figure.

Sterling refuses to weaken even as economic data slips and members of the BoE still look to add more QE. The $GBPUSD continues to make higher highs at 1.5999 though still remains capped by the major 1.60 level. Even the almighty commodity dollars (AUD, NZD, and CAD) are weak against the GBP. Are we seeing the beginnings of a bear trend reversal in sterling?

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Sterling Digest: March 23, 2012

Beautiful golf course
Enjoy the weekend - my friend and fellow trader has the right idea here

Being wrong early in cable kept me on the sidelines for the rest of the day. A good day to be out as the $EURGBP, $GBPUSD, and $GBPJPY saw whippy sideways actions to end the week. The $GBPCAD, $GBPAUD, and $GBPNZD came off their breakout highs as commodities firmed up a bit today after vicious selloffs all week. The question for the new week is whether sterling continues to consolidate or will the bull trend resume? Until that time. Enjoy the weekend.

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Get Your Mind Right

I had the privilege of meeting @DeniseKShull 2 years ago at the StockTwits Meetup during the NYC Trader Expo. I attended her session the next day and was blown away by her assertion to actually use your emotions in your trading. I followed her on Twitter. She started writing her book not too long after that conference. The rest, as they say, is history. If you haven’t read the book, this interview is a beautiful and illuminating preview. Absolutely blown away by the brilliant insights Matt and Denise discuss. LISTEN TO THIS INTERVIEW. Read the book. Get your mind right. Happy trades.

Market Mind Games with Denise Shull @denisekshull and Matt Davio @misstrade, A Radical Psychology of Investing, Trading, & Risk

Sterling Digest: March 22, 2012

UK - London: Oxford Street - Marks & Spencer
Most iconic chain store in the UK yet retail sales drop

Poor UK retail sales weakened sterling across the board. However, it remains to be seen if this weakness will be sustained or if it merely provides buying opportunities for bulls.

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Sterling Digest: March 21, 2012

I think I see a recovery on the cover of The Economist
UK forecasts 2012 GDP at 0.8%

A big day in UK politics with release of Bank of England minutes and the announcement of the country’s budget produced incredible moves in sterling today.

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Sterling Digest: March 20, 2012

10 pounds down the drain
Down drain into a pile of money

The new trading week may have opened with GBP bullishness but as the Monday session ended sterling slipped across the board into Tuesday’s UK inflation release. Expect GBP to weaken further on softer-than-expected inflation even though it is certainly a good thing for the British economy. Don’t expect much follow through on weakness. Sterling may look weak on fundamentals but recent price action favors GBP.

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Sterling Digest: March 14, 2012

Coinage
Despite the bears, sterling won't fade easily

No real surprises from the $FED or the BoJ yesterday as both left interest rates unchanged. With equities higher still after the FOMC statement, it is hard to see risk currencies fall more from here. While the USD seems to be trading on fundamentals (rising on good US news after both US NFP and somewhat hawkish Fed statement), it remains to be seen if that is a new shift in the market or if risk still rules investor sentiment.

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Sterling Digest: March 12, 2012

Lots of big talk made for lots of nice moves in the forex markets today. These central banks are only warming up with comments from Japan today ahead of their official interest rate decision tomorrow. But the $FED has taken to jawboning too. They also release a decision tomorrow but have been in the press for weeks. Lots of focus has been on the $USDJPY with its recent moves higher which should make the conspiracy theorists among us very anxious for Tuesday trading. At any rate, sterling flows were liquid in both directions today depending on your currency pair.