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Tag: EURGBP

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Elections Set Direction

More than ever, since I have been trading the forex markets, elections matter. The GBP has been stuck in ranges versus every major currency for months. Months! It’s been maddening. You can see these large ranges especially in the $GBPUSD, $GBPJPY, and $GBPAUD.

But during the last week of November, the GBP started to break these ranges. The culprit was the early polls in the UK showing that the PM’s political party, the Conservatives, would likely win a majority in Parliament. Months (years!) of British government gridlock, that prevented the UK and EU from coming to an agreement, looked to be over. And the markets began to get euphoric with increasing buying momentum building in the GBP across the board. The GBP exploded higher when exit polls confirmed the early poll results: Tories won an overwhelming majority in Parliament.

With such strong moves to the upside, it seems that the election has set the midterm direction in the GBP. However, this trading week has seen all of the post-election euphoria completely undone.

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART
EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART
GBPAUD 4 HOUR CHART

So now what? Well, the Bank of England (BoE) is slated to announce its last monetary policy decision of 2019 this Thursday morning. The BoE has been surprisingly hawkish all this year as they have allowed the economic data persuade them that the British economy has remained much more robust than they expected after the 2016 Brexit vote. I expect them to remain hawkish with the Brexit uncertainly largely assuaged with this general election. A hawkish BoE will see the GBP gain some support after the week’s corrective selloff. However, if the BoE suddenly changes its tune, the GBP correction lower will turn into rapid selloff.

Looking at the charts, the GBP is clearly waiting on the BoE. Trade what you see!

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ON THE AIR with FUTURES with Ben Lichtenstein

I think the Federal Reserve, once again, may have started a trend. When they cut interest rates a few weeks ago, they also signaled that rates would be on hold going forward from here. The market has since priced in a hold on interest rates for the new year 2020. But even more interestingly, central banks around the world have also followed suit with hawkish rhetoric and no-moves on rates.

Today, I was back on the air with Ben Lichtenstein talking currencies on his FUTURES show with the TD Ameritrade Network. We discussed the central banks, what the impending general election in the UK could mean for the GBP and what’s going on with the Canadian and U.S. dollars.

Enjoy the show!

Lydia on TDA Network
Click to watch
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ON THE AIR with F.A.C.E.

On Monday, October 14, 2019, I joined Dale Pinkert on the Forex Analytix Community Experience to speak about the rally in the GBP at the end of the last trading week. I spoke about how the GBP had much more room to run given how the new turn of events in Brexit has changed the fundamental landscape for the GBP.

Unbelievably, all of my calls made on Monday have already been hit and this trading week hasn’t even ended yet. Better yet is news that hit the wires this morning that the EU has accepted the UK’s deal. Now, it is in the hands of the UK Parliament. Keep eyes on how this plays out. It will most certainly drive market flows in the short term for the GBP.

Check out also my levels and technical analysis during my segment and enjoy the show! Make sure you watch to the end to hear my commentary on the S&P 500 and equity markets.

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EURGBP Defies the Rules

I stand by corrections. A market ALWAYS corrects. ALWAYS. Nothing moves in a straight line. And the GBP, in particular. The GBP is highly likely to retrace price moves with a correction that moves to the Fibonacci retracement levels. But the $EURGBP has defied all of these adages. For over 2 months, the $EURGBP has impossibly moved in a straight line!

But if we drill down into this rally, the daily chart shows a correction that has actually moved higher. This currency pair has, indeed, experienced an correction. A correction through time rather than an actual correction through price (that would see a move lower). And when a currency pair cannot correct through price, it is extremely strong indication of the strength of the trend move.

So what could make the $EURGBP move into a correction lower? Perhaps a restart of the quantitative easing program by the European Central Bank? Perhaps. It would have to surprise markets so that fact that this is already being whispered means it is already being priced in. Maybe a quick Brexit deal that pleases all sides? Maybe but this is so unlikely it is improbable. With no real fundamental reason for a move to the downside, I expect the $EURGBP to continue to grind higher for another rally higher. The 0.9050 level is the next target for bulls with downside targets as the Fibonacci levels pictured above on the daily chart.

Related reads: ON THE AIR with F.A.C.E. (FaithMightFX)
ECB prepares for a second wave of quantitative easing (New Europe)

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ON THE AIR with F.A.C.E.

On Wednesday, July 3rd, an hour after my appearance the TD Ameritrade Network, I was back on the air with Dale Pinkert and the Forex Analytix Community (F.A.C.E.). We talked about the current breakdown in the Great British pound, looking specifically at levels of importance in the $EURGBP, $GBPUSD, $GBPCAD, $GBPNZD, and the $GBPAUD.

Dale is a veteran in the business and masterful interviewer. He asked some great questions about the trading courses that I have available and how clients fare with my investment advisory services. So you learn about that too!

Enjoy the show!

Related reads: My course with The Profit Room (FaithMightFX)
Invest with Lydia (FaithMightFX)

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ON THE AIR with Futures with Ben Lichenstien

I ended the trading week this Friday morning on the TD Ameritrade Network talking as one of the guests on the Futures with Ben Lichenstein show. In light of the surprise resignation announcement of UK Prime Minister Theresa May hours before I went on, it isn’t any wonder that Ben and I discussed the Brexit, the implications of another prime minister resignation brought on by the Brexit, and what effects all of this will have on the forex markets.

We also talked about the rise of risk aversion in the markets and what that will mean for the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen as safe haven currencies. But the one safe haven that I did not mention this morning is the Swiss franc. Luckily, Dayo already wrote an analysis yesterday looking at the current trend in the $EURCHF. So read that and watch my interview below for an understanding of the new fundamental landscape in the forex markets heading into the summer trading months.

Lydia on TDA Network
Click the image to watch
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ON THE AIR with Futures with Ben Lichenstein

I kicked off the new trading week this Monday morning on the TD Ameritrade Network talking as one of the guests on the Futures with Ben Lichenstein show. Ben and I discussed the full gamut of fundamentals in the forex market for the Australian dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen, the Great British pound and the U.S. dollar.

Enjoy the interview below!

Lydia on TDA Network
Click image to watch
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ON THE AIR with F.A.C.E.

The forex markets have been crap. And that’s just to say that for my trading style, I haven’t been able to trade much at all in the past several months. I know myself and I understand that the current market environment has not allowed me to trade my style. The major GBP pairs are all consolidating in the face of a now delayed Brexit, so there really hasn’t been much to do or say about the markets.

So I am thankful for the opportunity to make an appearance with Dale Pinkert and the Forex Analytix Community Experience (F.A.C.E.) during this time in the markets. I think it is important to share the ugly as well as the good in our process and to demonstrate that we don’t always make money at all times in trading. There are times when the best thing to do is really to do NO thing.

Enjoy!

If I can be of service to you, please do reach out. Happy trades!

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ON THE AIR with Futures with Ben Litchenstein

? I was back on the TD Ameritrade Network with the Futures with Ben Lichtenstein Show bright and early this morning ?? talking Bank of Canada, Brexit and the U.S. dollar. Ben always asks the tough questions providing a great interview of insights for viewers.

It looks like the Bank of Canada did, indeed, back down off their hawkish rhetoric as the Canadian dollar is weaker after the monetary policy announcment. The U.S. dollar is starting to react a bit to that poor U.S. trades number but the market will likely keep a muted reaction as it waits for the spotlight event of the week, the U.S. jobs number. Don’t forget about the Canadian jobs report released at the same time. Another weak economic report just may send the Canadian dollar over the cliff for good.

Watch my full segment below:

Lydia Idem on the Futures with Ben Litchenstein Show on the TD Ameritrade Network
Click the image to watch!
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