$FOREX Archives - FaithMight

October 26, 2018

Overbought Positions, Yet USDJPY Price Remains Bullish

A major Bullish trend began in March 2018. About 800 pips have moved in favour of the USD pushing the $USDJY higher. The USD remains quite strong in 2018. There has been a major break in the uptrend in May, price only moved downwards from 111.149 to 108.412 before the uptrend continued to new highs at 114.488.

Price action disobeyed the rules of RSI: price has shown overbought positions three times between May and October, and each time the upward movement continued. Could this be the monetary policies made this year, that has favoured the USD? Price is around 112.631 hoping to touch 114.30, which is on the upper band line. Price might begin a downtrend soon but it may touch the upper Bollinger band line before a trace of downtrend. Ichimoku on the daily chart shows no trace of downtrend. We might be expecting 200 pips movement upward.

October 26, 2018

AUDUSD To Gain More Pips Despite A Long Term Downtrend

It has been a long term downtrend for the $AUDUSD since the beginning of the year. The downtrend is characterized with several lower highs and lower lows. In the last two months, the upward and downward movement of $AUDUSD have been between 300 pips. Price movement tends downwards maintaining the lower part of the Bollinger bands. The USD without argument this year has gained so much against the AUD.

The RSI has not touched the overbought position since January. Since then, price keeps moving downward without ever reaching the overbought or oversold regions. A breakout occurred off the trendlines and price is yet to touch the Bollinger band middle line. It is about 200 pips reaching this point. The future of Ichimoku shows a long downtrend and no trace of a reversal. The last time $AUDUSD maintained a bullish trend was between December 2017 and January 2018. Ever since a reversal occurred, price of $AUDUSD has been on a downtrend.

October 23, 2018

Price Obeys USDCAD Bullish Movement At Resistance

The $USDCAD direction has an upward zigzag movement throughout this year. Price has been retesting on the resistance level several times this year. For the most part of 2018, price has been bullish. The USD obviously has been taming the strength of the CAD for some time. The highest price movement of $USDCAD this year has been at level 1.33419. The last time price touched this point was in June 2017. A bearish signal shows through the breakout in the trendlines, which tend to move downwards.

The Bollinger bands still holds price in the upper region of the bands. A reversal might happen anytime soon, which will make the CAD to gain more leading to a new trend downwards. Since RSI shows no trace of price being overbought, price has been able to touch the upper part of the band before touching the middle band line. Since a breakout occurred from the trendlines, price is meant to touch the lower band line in the coming weeks. As I expect bearish movement to start, this is dependent on sellers of the $USDCAD currency pair. The price of $USDCAD might reach 1.2840.

Given that price is still 500 pips away from there, this breakout to the downside could also be a fakeout.