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Nikkei About To Begin A Bullish Trend

October was not too good for Nikkei. The stocks began a downtrend moving over 3000 points. That’s a big loss for the stocks in $NKY. The highest level $NKY reached in 2018 was at 24372. This level was reached in the early days of October where RSI showed us an overbought region. This gave rise to a reversal. For the most part, the $NKY, in 2018, is dominated by sideways movement on the daily time frame. Having been oversold from the downtrend in the latter days of October, price was at 21067 level. The last time price got to 21067 was in March 2018.

The Senkou Span from Ichimoku shows a downtrend future, but has yet to show a reversal signal. RSI shows an oversold region at 21067. Price of $NKY already touched the lower Bollinger band line thereby leading to a bounce upward. Using the price movement on the trendlines, price already broke out, which indicates a bullish trend is about to begin. This bullish movement might touch the middle line of the band which is at level 22821. From now, price of $NKY might generate over 1000 points from 21700 to 22821.

Another Bailout

Kuroda said the BoJ’s easing was unrelated to portfolio allocations by the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), but the effect of the day’s two major decisions means that the central bank steps up its buying of Japanese government bonds, offsetting the giant pension fund’s increased sales of them.

Source: International Financing Review

 

Disguised as monetary policy decision to increase quantitative and qualitative easing, the BoJ basically bailed out the pension this morning. With Japan’s population aging, pension payments are coming due. Japanese equities have basically gone nowhere in the last 15 years. So pension has probably been loosing money once you consider fees paid on those assets. The Federal Reserve has basically proven to the world that QE works. We can debate the inequality of its distribution, but needless to say, the US economy is buzzing at 3.5% GDP. That’s right where we need and like to be. So the financial engineering looks to be sound and Japan has no problem using the instrument to increase wealth for its citizens too. QE today promises that the GPIF can meet its obligatory payments to policy holders AND increases the value of the GPIF’s asset holdings. Very win-win. The market likes it.

Japanese equites long term chart GBPJPY DAILY CHART

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