After watching cable remain rangebound all summer, the market used the Federal Reserve as a reason to weaken the USD further. As a result, the $GBPUSD broke its range to the upside. Traders know this to be a bullish signal but I am skeptical of this rally.
1. The Bank of England
The BoE is also very dovish. It, too, has signaled more QE is coming. That’s QE4 folks.
2. UK Economy
The British economy was the first of the G10 to slip back into recession when it did so in the Q1 2012. The Olympics may give the economy a welcomed bump, it will be temporary rather than a kickstart to a recovery.
3. The Eurozone
The UK’s biggest trading partner remains on the brink of financial collapse. To boot, the Eurozone countries are also falling into recession one by one and suffering staggering unemployment.
So the GBP fundamentals are very weak. But the market is all about the USD for the moment. And for that reason, $GBPUSD can go higher. In fact, the bullish close 60+ pips above the key 1.5800 level confirms a technical breakout has occurred. However, follow through could be hampered by the big 61.8% Fibonacci level on the daily chart. Will this breakout turn into a fakeout? It is still a very real possibility. Like I said, I’m skeptical. But trade what you see!
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