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Author: @faithmight

Lydia Idem is an investment advisor who has been an investor and trader for 23 years. She has been a special guest on TD Ameritrade Network and Benzinga’s #PreMarket Prep Show; featured in FORBES Magazine and CNNMoney; and co-author/contributor to The StockTwits Edge and Trading: The Best of The Best. In 2014, she launched FM Capital Group LLC, a registered investment advisory firm serving people of color. Lydia was recently named #22 of the Twitter Accounts Investors Need to Follow in 2017 and #3 of the Top 10 Women To Follow In Finance for 2015. Lydia has a Master of Science in Management (Georgia Institute of Technology) and a Bachelor of Science in Computer Science (Vanderbilt University). Follow me on Twitter: @faithmight Follow me on Instagram: @faithmight Follow me on Facebook: fb.com/fmcapitalgrp
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Sterling Digest, April 23 2012: bulls maintain control

pounds and pence
Pounds and Pence

$EURGBP breaks to new lows to open the new trading week as fully anticipated by many in Thursday’s digest. Sterling also maintained bullish momentum versus the commodity dollars as $GBPAUD, $GBPNZD, and $GBPCAD continued to rally higher in Monday trading. $GBPUSD was the odd man as it trades in a narrow range struggling with both a strong USD and strong GBP. If USD strength remains, look for cable to correct lower to 1.60 before rallying again to new highs.

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Sterling Digest, April 22 2012: double-dip risks

GDP projection based on market interest rate expectations and £325 billion asset purchases
Large risk here of a double-dip

The Bank of England is sounding very hawkish with commentary from both Adam Posen (uber-dove) and Andrew Sentance (uber-hawk) featured today. However with double-dip calls coming out of the UK, the market is already looking ahead to Wednesday’s UK GDP release. Currently hawkish sentiment will drive an already rallying sterling higher into the release. However, the risk of a contraction could see sterling tumble severely on disappointing data.

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Sterling Digest, April 20 2012: sterling hot

A Bank of England Old One Pound Banknote
Sterling so hot even old notes find value

Sterling has staged a breakout across the board this week as its underlying fundamental landscape has turned hawkish. Early Friday trading saw GBP break to new 2012 highs versus the AUD, CAD, USD, and NZD. Its been a tremendous week. So it is no wonder that many traders are looking to get short sterling into next week. Whether this is a good idea or not depends on your timeframe. Just remember though, the trend is your friend.

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Sterling Digest, April 19 2012: the euro is dying

Bureaucracy. Democracy
Bureaucracy kills the euro

The streams are buzzing with $EURGBP talk as the pair finally breaks out to the downside for new yearly lows. This pair remained rangebound for 4 months as the ECB, IMF, and EU kept the market in great suspense on what it was going to do about Greece and the other PIIGS. Unlike other QE-wielding central banks like the BoE and the $FED, the ECB took its time in dealing with the financial crisis within its borders. As larger economies like Spain and France start to teeter, the long term euro implications of early inaction could be devastating and sterling stands to benefit.

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Sterling Digest, April 18 2012: when fundies turn hawkish

£20,bank of England
Is sterling strength here to stay?

Sterling comes alive this week after core UK CPI ticked higher-than-expected yesterday and a known BoE dove turns hawkish today. While economic data is important and moves the currency, the 2 most important fundamental pieces to watch concerning sterling are inflation and the Bank of England’s reaction to it. This week, both turned hawkish. If this becomes a trend, we could see sterling strength remain with a $GBPUSD that is above 1.60 and a $EURGBP at 0.80.

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Sterling Digest, April 13, 2012: the China effect

China and the paradox of prosperity, The Economist
What effect will China have on sterling?

If there were any doubts to China’s ability to move the markets now, there shouldn’t be. China’s soft data release very early in the Friday session has plagued risk currencies like the commodity currencies and the euro. And $GBPUSD and $GBPJPY remain weak as risk aversion flows strengthen the USD and JPY across the board.

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Enter The Chaos Index

the Chaos Index
Is this for real?!

Apparently, there are more riots and protests against the goverment in countries with poor or declining economies. In fact,

The strong link between unrest and austerity suggests that cutting expenditures in times of crisis may be even harder than previously thought…To avoid the spectre of default and a downward spiral of collapsing output, lower tax revenue, and a rising wave of unrest – an austerity trap – governments have to act more cautiously in good times. They need to borrow less and keep taxes high even if public debt is falling in a period of expansion.

This is hardly news. As long as credit rating agencies rule the world, governments are more interested in pleasing them as opposed to its own citizens. Expect more Arab Springs and Occupys as food and energy prices rise with unemployment in countries with strict austerity measures. And the markets won’t be forgiving. Look no further than Europe.

 

Source: This Chart Predicts Rising Violence And Unrest Around The World (Business Insider)

 

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What Do You Do With 18 Billion Euros?

You sell them for other appreciating currencies.

It’s no secret that the SNB has been in the markets buying euros to maintain its 1.20 EUR/CHF currency peg. The euro, however, is a loosing currency to hold as it looses value in the face of its sovereign debt and political crises. To hedge against this loss of  euro value and diversify its foreign reserves as it accumulates euros, a pattern, first noted by Credit Writedowns and included in yesterday’s digest, has emerged that the SNB sells its intervention euros for other, more valued currencies. And it looks like one currency of choice may be sterling.

EURCHF DAILY CHART
Euro has drifted higher in the face of intervention
EURGBP DAILY CHART
However, euro sells off versus the sterling post-intervention

Sterling strength has been mysterious to many traders because UK fundamentals are so poor (poor economy and tons of QE). Perhaps the SNB has been big buyer of sterling as it looks to quietly get rid of a devaluing euro that it is forced to buy. Now as $EURCHF is hovering around the 1.20 peg, I have to wonder if we’ll see a drop in $EURGBP when the SNB enters the forex market again. Some argue the SNB is already in the market.

OK, I step off my conspiracy theorist soapbox.

 

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Sterling Digest, April 11, 2012: central bank fodder

Central bank balance sheets versus the SP500
Central banks at work

The 2 most active central banks last year are still drawing lots of attention from market participants. Both the BoJ and SNB are major threats of more intervention in the forex markets in 2012. Personally, I am not a fan of trading directly with or against central banks so I stay away from CHF or JPY pairs. However, as so aptly put in Credit Writedowns (below), even investors without CHF exposure should still follow this story. With so much central bank rhetoric, when will the market finally take notice?

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Sterling Digest, April 10, 2012: accommodating growth

A new twist in Myanmar
Arm twisting has also forced the UK to forge new international relationships

Sterling has been mixed bag as European traders came back to the markets today after a long Easter weekend. Currency pairs should trade very technically during this relatively quiet news week out of the UK.

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