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Sterling Digest: March 23, 2012

Beautiful golf course
Enjoy the weekend - my friend and fellow trader has the right idea here

Being wrong early in cable kept me on the sidelines for the rest of the day. A good day to be out as the $EURGBP, $GBPUSD, and $GBPJPY saw whippy sideways actions to end the week. The $GBPCAD, $GBPAUD, and $GBPNZD came off their breakout highs as commodities firmed up a bit today after vicious selloffs all week. The question for the new week is whether sterling continues to consolidate or will the bull trend resume? Until that time. Enjoy the weekend.

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Get Your Mind Right

I had the privilege of meeting @DeniseKShull 2 years ago at the StockTwits Meetup during the NYC Trader Expo. I attended her session the next day and was blown away by her assertion to actually use your emotions in your trading. I followed her on Twitter. She started writing her book not too long after that conference. The rest, as they say, is history. If you haven’t read the book, this interview is a beautiful and illuminating preview. Absolutely blown away by the brilliant insights Matt and Denise discuss. LISTEN TO THIS INTERVIEW. Read the book. Get your mind right. Happy trades.

Market Mind Games with Denise Shull @denisekshull and Matt Davio @misstrade, A Radical Psychology of Investing, Trading, & Risk

Sterling Digest: March 22, 2012

UK - London: Oxford Street - Marks & Spencer
Most iconic chain store in the UK yet retail sales drop

Poor UK retail sales weakened sterling across the board. However, it remains to be seen if this weakness will be sustained or if it merely provides buying opportunities for bulls.

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Sterling Digest: March 21, 2012

I think I see a recovery on the cover of The Economist
UK forecasts 2012 GDP at 0.8%

A big day in UK politics with release of Bank of England minutes and the announcement of the country’s budget produced incredible moves in sterling today.

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Sterling Digest: March 20, 2012

10 pounds down the drain
Down drain into a pile of money

The new trading week may have opened with GBP bullishness but as the Monday session ended sterling slipped across the board into Tuesday’s UK inflation release. Expect GBP to weaken further on softer-than-expected inflation even though it is certainly a good thing for the British economy. Don’t expect much follow through on weakness. Sterling may look weak on fundamentals but recent price action favors GBP.

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Sterling Digest: March 14, 2012

Coinage
Despite the bears, sterling won't fade easily

No real surprises from the $FED or the BoJ yesterday as both left interest rates unchanged. With equities higher still after the FOMC statement, it is hard to see risk currencies fall more from here. While the USD seems to be trading on fundamentals (rising on good US news after both US NFP and somewhat hawkish Fed statement), it remains to be seen if that is a new shift in the market or if risk still rules investor sentiment.

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Sterling Digest: March 12, 2012

Lots of big talk made for lots of nice moves in the forex markets today. These central banks are only warming up with comments from Japan today ahead of their official interest rate decision tomorrow. But the $FED has taken to jawboning too. They also release a decision tomorrow but have been in the press for weeks. Lots of focus has been on the $USDJPY with its recent moves higher which should make the conspiracy theorists among us very anxious for Tuesday trading. At any rate, sterling flows were liquid in both directions today depending on your currency pair.

Sterling Digest: March 11, 2012

World Money Expo
An ironic find on Flickr: the World Money Expo. In China

This week rounds out the major central bank announcements for the month of March. Three central banks are on tap to release decisions on monetary policy: the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank. Of course, the Fed is the highlight. But with the Fed in the news so much last week, one has to wonder what more the Fed can give the markets.

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What To Celebrate

If you started this week with a trading plan on a currency pair, good for you. That’s just the first hump. Get a plan. Write it down. Yes, typing counts. Write down what you see the currency pair doing. Write down the key levels. Write down what you will do if it gets to those key levels. So if you managed to get that done between Saturday and Sunday afternoon, I say KUDOS to you! Celebrate.

The second half of the battle is simply trading the plan. Think about your week. Those of you who had the plan, think about your week trading that currency pair for which the plan was written. Did you trade your plan? Did you understand the plan you didn’t write and trade that plan? Did you have to trade your original plan anyway by the end of the week? Was any that successful? Good for you, fellow traders! Some among us had a flawless week. Most of us had mistakes. And yet we all have something to learn and take with us back into the markets on Monday. Celebrate.

My lesson this week is: Trade your plan because nothing beats experience. When the market is bouncing around, it’s easy to loose your way. Go back to the plan.

Sound simple. It’s not. Sound daunting. It doesn’t have to be. Start with a plan. No new words of wisdom today. Just a real profound feeling of pride one gets when you finish a good week of good trading. When you start to execute on that plan with the confidence of experience, you start to become a different trader. Every single time you execute. Get to that point in your trading. Don’t celebrate the money. But by all mean, celebrate a well-executed plan!

Celebrate by Furryscaly, on Flickr

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Sterling Digest: March 8, 2012

kal cartoon of sarkozy, merkel, and cameron
The market is way ahead of their rhetoric

With 4 central banks making statements in the past 24 hours, I’d say it’s been a tame session. It’s amazing (to the point of amusement) how much the market pauses and takes a step back for US NFP. Big guns are positioning. If you were around since Asia, you saw $GBPUSD quietly rally to open London at 1.5750. She now sits at 1.5820. You do the math. So the BoE did what was expected. And the market reacted as expected. Weird. And tomorrow is Friday. Trader be aware.

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