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Europe Contagion Hits Japan

chart of Japan trade balance with EU

Europe hit Japan right where it hurts – in the wallet – for the first time in 38 years. We all know that Europe is hell bent on carrying out austerity-driven policies. That drop in exports above is vicious. The following recovery has been tepid at best. It looks like the recession that has gripped Europe since 2009 is spreading beyond its borders.

As its second largest trading partner, Japan needs European business to help inflate its economy. Decreasing trade, however, leads to decreasing price hikes which leads to more deflation which equals a strong yen. Currencies from low-inflation countries are always in favor with investors. With $USDJPY around 80.00 and the $EURJPY having traded to record lows, the BoJ has quite a fight on their hands as Europe only gets worse still.

But who cares? Interesting chart, nonetheless.

Source: Reuters

A Pre-FOMC Look At Cable

cable daily chart

While the $GBPUSD has been bearish since tumbling from 1.63, it turned bullish when it climbed back above 1.5500 after putting in a higher low. This week opened with a 1st test of 1.5800 major support level with the high at 1.5790.

Now the market waits on the FOMC. QE3 is supposed to be revealed today. If so, cable will soar. Support at 1.5800 certainly sets the stage for a return to 1.6000. However, if the Fed decides to wait, the $GBPUSD may fall back towards 1.5500. A break below 1.55 would certainly have bears hoping for new lows below 1.5220.

Trade what you see!

Strong USD, Strong GBP

There is a new theme emerging with the USD BREAKOUT this week. Everything is weak against USD. $GBPUSD has fallen over 650 pips in 4 weeks. It ended last week on a technical break of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its entire rally off the January 2012 lows. That was the last defense for bulls though their case was lost with price action below 1.60 for 2 weeks now. However bearish cable may be this does not at all roll neatly into a weak sterling story.

On the contrary, sterling is killing almost everything else. GBP is at multi-year highs against the euro. No secret there as to why. But the commodity dollars are also weakening tremendously against sterling on broad-based weakness in commodities. The strong USD combined with slowing Chinese growth is looking to make commodity weakness a new trend in the short-term.

When trading these markets, timing is crucial. The reason for the choppy consolidation around 1.60 in $GBPAUD and $GBPCAD is due to the sterling weakness in $GBPUSD and general GBP strength in $EURGBP and $GBPNZD. The EURGBP close below 0.80 signals more GBP strength; even as the $GBPUSD close below 1.5750 signals more GBP weakness there. The correlation is ironic. But price action is truth. The strong USD — strong GBP theme bears paying attention to as we head into summer trading.

1.60 The Big Figure

60 Yonge Street
The Bigga Figure

The market loves magic numbers. And the one on radar is 1.60. GBP is dealing with 1.60 on 3 currency pairs that I follow. This is quite uncanny and ironic but maybe not so much coincidence. $GBPUSD, $GBPAUD, $GBPCAD is a strong dollar bloc. Their breakouts above 1.60 marked technical reversals across this bloc to new yearly highs. But this week’s breaks below 1.60 looks to undo all of that.

Looking back a year at $GBPUSD reveals that a break below 1.60 after breakout above only points to more weakness. What started as a correction has already turned to a reversal in the $GBPUSD today. @EdMatts did a great video explanation so good it was highlighted twice in the Sterling Digest.

$GBPAUD hasn’t held up in the past when it broke below 1.60 after new highs. Where it has held, price rallied for hundreds of pips before topping out.

GBPAUD daily chart

So now look at the $GPBCAD. It is still holding up as today’s low at 1.6003 is ahead of the big figure even if only by pips. It then bounced over 120 pips to settle at 1.6100 (as of this writing). A close above 1.60 keeps the pair bolstered for a rally higher. But with lower highs on the daily chart, a rally to met by sellers until buyers can prove themselves with new highs.

GBPCAD daily

Nonetheless suffice it to say that 1.60 is a serious psychological level for sterling at the moment. Trade what you see!

Image credit

Exit The Euro

Chart: the deleveraging process is desynchronized and heterogeneous

It has to be a very scary thing when your banks, companies, households and even governments can’t pay down its debt. Can a currency be made worthless based on its debt load in a world where money is electronic and can be minted with a push of a button? We just may soon find out. Exit the euro.

Beware Trade Tips

Especially when it comes from Goldman Sachs:

The mighty Goldman Sachs has apparently recommended selling EUR/GBP at 0.8210/20 with a tight stop of 0.8250 and targeting a move back down to 0.8150/60

Since Goldman Sachs wants to make trade recommendations, why don’t we all make some? Here is mine:

GOLDMAN SACHS IS LONG EUR.

Do what you will.

 

screen shot of my twitter stream at 2:20ish am pacific time
I LOVE my Twitter stream

 

Source: Trade Recommendation… (Forex Live)

Enter The Chaos Index

the Chaos Index
Is this for real?!

Apparently, there are more riots and protests against the goverment in countries with poor or declining economies. In fact,

The strong link between unrest and austerity suggests that cutting expenditures in times of crisis may be even harder than previously thought…To avoid the spectre of default and a downward spiral of collapsing output, lower tax revenue, and a rising wave of unrest – an austerity trap – governments have to act more cautiously in good times. They need to borrow less and keep taxes high even if public debt is falling in a period of expansion.

This is hardly news. As long as credit rating agencies rule the world, governments are more interested in pleasing them as opposed to its own citizens. Expect more Arab Springs and Occupys as food and energy prices rise with unemployment in countries with strict austerity measures. And the markets won’t be forgiving. Look no further than Europe.

 

Source: This Chart Predicts Rising Violence And Unrest Around The World (Business Insider)

 

What Do You Do With 18 Billion Euros?

You sell them for other appreciating currencies.

It’s no secret that the SNB has been in the markets buying euros to maintain its 1.20 EUR/CHF currency peg. The euro, however, is a loosing currency to hold as it looses value in the face of its sovereign debt and political crises. To hedge against this loss of  euro value and diversify its foreign reserves as it accumulates euros, a pattern, first noted by Credit Writedowns and included in yesterday’s digest, has emerged that the SNB sells its intervention euros for other, more valued currencies. And it looks like one currency of choice may be sterling.

EURCHF DAILY CHART
Euro has drifted higher in the face of intervention
EURGBP DAILY CHART
However, euro sells off versus the sterling post-intervention

Sterling strength has been mysterious to many traders because UK fundamentals are so poor (poor economy and tons of QE). Perhaps the SNB has been big buyer of sterling as it looks to quietly get rid of a devaluing euro that it is forced to buy. Now as $EURCHF is hovering around the 1.20 peg, I have to wonder if we’ll see a drop in $EURGBP when the SNB enters the forex market again. Some argue the SNB is already in the market.

OK, I step off my conspiracy theorist soapbox.

 

Timing Is The Only Thing

Too many people say “I was too early on that one” to reassure themselves that they were right after all. The bottom line, though, is: if you didn’t make money, you weren’t right. So stop lying to yourself and work on your timing!

Great read over at Richard Todd’s blog on timing. Timing is something I strive to improve upon every time I’m in the market. I realized early in my trading that the entry of a trade is just as important as the exit. I personally feel it is more important. Todd’s post got me thinking about what it is I do to improve the timing in my trading.

  1. Use tighter stops. This is a recent change I made about a year ago. I know it is very counterintuitive and even ill-advised. But tight stops don’t allow you to be lazy when entering markets. There can’t be any “Oh I’ll just get in right here.” There must be a reason for every trade and that reason is your price. A trade is triggered because price has reacted a certain way at a specific chart level. It is at that level where we would love to get in at. It is the level that will maximize our profitability. An early entry is too impatient. Impatience is never a good way to trade. A late entry is a missed entry. Missed trades simply don’t pay which can be okay but refer to the above quote.
  2. Use limit orders. Trading live in the market can be exhilarating and boring. Both environments have positives and negatives but they have one thing in common. They both affect timing. In a volatile market, some traders get an itchy finger pulling triggers as fast as the market can oscillate. In a slow market, impatience rears as a trader enters a trade just to trade. Using orders allows me to time my entries to a certain extent as I let the market come to me. If the market never comes to me, then it’s time for a new setup and a new trade. With capital preserved, I can go into that next trade with a clear head.
  3. Using profit targets. There is aplethora of literature out there about using stops. Far less is dedicated to using limit orders to set profit targets. Many traders will place a stop but never set a profit target. Without a hard profit target set, the trader may be away from the screens when the market finally does move in her direction. Or worse, the trader hesitates, or simply refuses, to take profits off the table. Use hard (tight) stops. And use hard targets.

Todd says timing is everything. I agree, and take it further. Timing is the only thing.

Source: Timing Is Everything (blog.richardtodd.name)

Get Your Mind Right

I had the privilege of meeting @DeniseKShull 2 years ago at the StockTwits Meetup during the NYC Trader Expo. I attended her session the next day and was blown away by her assertion to actually use your emotions in your trading. I followed her on Twitter. She started writing her book not too long after that conference. The rest, as they say, is history. If you haven’t read the book, this interview is a beautiful and illuminating preview. Absolutely blown away by the brilliant insights Matt and Denise discuss. LISTEN TO THIS INTERVIEW. Read the book. Get your mind right. Happy trades.

Market Mind Games with Denise Shull @denisekshull and Matt Davio @misstrade, A Radical Psychology of Investing, Trading, & Risk