FaithMight - Page 45 of 78 - Market commentary and analysis insights. Brought to by FM Capital Group.

July 16, 2017July 19, 2017

Is The Cannabis Trade Burnt?

Right as markets closed last week, the newswires had a flash crash. And just for an instant, a headline came through the wires that wasn’t tainted by Russia. No, this headline was original, home-grown American. Attorney General Sessions announced his own war, the War on Drugs 3.0. And the focus of the war will be cannabis.

Cannabis stocks have become a new trend in the market as over 8 states and the District of Colombia either approve of medical marijuana or recreational use straight out. And as such markets have responded with companies transacting goods and raising funds to the tune of millions of dollars. The Obama administration rightfully acknowledged the profit and commercial potential in the drug. Though President Obama never went so far as to legalize marijuana, it can be argued that he liberalized it. And yet here we are over 100 days into a new presidency and Sessions reminds the world that he needs to save us from ourselves.

Unfortunately, there’s little a company (public or private) can do about the federal government enforcing its own laws. Strict enforcement could seriously hamper investment in the budding cannabis sector. The regulatory risk inherent in a cannabis trade right now is sky high in a trump administration. Investors may need to wait 4 years until a science-friendly administration steps back into the Oval Office.

Despite the many opportunities to invest in cannabis companies, now may be too early to invest. Remember that in trading being too early is just as painful as outright loosing money. However, if you have the appropriate timeframe and investor mindset, the market may actually smell like opportunity.

More to read: States Keep Saying Yes to Marijuana Use. Now Comes the Federal No. (The New York Times)

June 10, 2017June 12, 2017

The Youth vs. The Market

Now that the markets have opened after the week that ended in a hung parliament, I, a mere trader, can now make exclaim,

Theresa May made the biggest mistake of her short tenure as prime minister. FULL STOP.

She completely discounted the voice and vote of the youth. Since the June 23rd referendum vote, it was clear that young British voters in no way approved of a Brexit. But they didn’t vote. Or so it was reported. In my mind, as a disgusted Democratic sitting in California, why would the Prime Minister ever give the citizenry an election so soon after she stepped into office? Americans are waiting excruciatingly for the 2018 midterm elections. Can you imagine trump ever declaring a snap election to prove a point? We could only hope. But I digress. Back to Great Britain. As the market rallied in anticipation of the election, I thought it was market cheer for a new change in Parliament. Surely, folks would oust the party that campaigned for and got their Brexit. The youth were not going to make this mistake twice.

Theresa May deflated, tuition fee liar Nick Clegg gone for good, a hard brexit in smithereens. That was us.

— Reni Eddo-Lodge (@renireni) June 9, 2017

And that’s exactly what they did. The Party of Brexit lost its majority hold. And the voters gave that majority to NO ONE. Fucking brilliant. If Prime Minister May was truly engaged with the public, she would’ve never declared that snap election. She counted on increased apathy to secure a mandate for Brexit. And as such, her party not only lost their Parliamentary majority, nobody won the majority. And the hung parliament just completely changed the fundamental landscape for the Great British pound.

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June 7, 2017

FM CAPITAL GROUP

I have been on Twitter for 8 years. I birthed #forexTwitter along with some pioneering souls. We were here before the stock guys. They just made it cool. In those 8 years, I have been hugely humbled by folks who have reached out to me for help in their journey to build wealth. Most of these requests have been from traders. However, more requests were looking for advice in how to build their wealth portfolio. I love trading and I love the markets. No one wakes up in the middle of the night to trade foreign exchange and not love it. So I began translating my midnight trading into portfolio building. I bit the bullet, produced the paperwork, passed the Series 65 and raised an advisory firm — FM Capital Group LLC. I’m happy to discover the incredible good that comes from helping others put money to work.

But we are not doing investment advice the traditional way. No 2-20 fees or commissions. No account minimum. Yes, the chair of our advisory board thinks I’m crazy. She’s been in the brokerage business for over 45 years and all she ever did was sell product. But she trusts my vision. I want a company that first believes that clients should keep as much of their investment profits as possible. I want a company that knows that everyone has to start somewhere. Lastly, I want a company that educates. The is a natural extension of the trading tweets and blog posts I have been producing the last 8 years on Twitter. My dream to give individuals who have traditionally never had access before, personal access to opportunities to grow their own wealth. Without knowledge, I know firsthand that significant wealth is quickly harnessed in all the wrong ways. I am on a mission to change this trend and feel very well positioned to do so.

So with that said, I can’t do this alone. My hope is that the advisors of FM Capital Group provide the most comprehensive investment help for you. I am a building a team to do that. If you are interested in the opportunities we have available, visit this page for application instructions.

May 29, 2017May 29, 2017

This is the Correction We’ve Been Waiting On

After waiting weeks for the $GBPUSD to put in a correction of this recent bull rally, cable finally staged a real correction last week. Since the end of April (exactly 4 weeks ago now), the $GBPUSD attracted buyers at the 1.2850 level never allowing for a Fibonacci retracement to take place. For the entire month of May, these shallow dips would produce new highs. So when the rally finally exhausted at the 1.3050 resistance level, the break of these lows around the 1.2850 level was a welcome development for traders waiting for the opportunity to buy the GBP. The correction took cable as low as 1.2774 on Friday. The 1.2774 low has confluence with both former highs and lows at 1.2772 and the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.2786. The market has been waiting on this correction the entire month of May.

What’s in question now is whether or not the $GBPUSD continues lower or if buyers will now start to step in after this correction. And right now, buyers have stepped in. The $GBPUSD bounced on Friday right at the 1.2772 support level but opens the week already finding resistance at the former lows around the 1.2850 level. The former floor has become the ceiling, which may indicate that further weakness may be in store for the $GBPUSD. As such, we find Friday’s buyers taking profits against this 1.2850 resistance level as price is unable to move higher in early week trading action. This initial weakness is also attracting sellers who are now anticipating the failed high at 1.2850 to signal more weakness to move cable below the Friday low.

If further downside price action is in store for the $GBPUSD , we anticipate a break below the 1.2774 Friday low to the next support level at 1.2700. There is confluence at this next support level with the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.2706. As the market continues to experience risk aversion flows and anticipate a rosy U.S. jobs report, we could see the $GBPUSD continue to weaken to new lows even as low as the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Once at these levels, any surprise USD weakness will catapult the $GBPUSD higher from what will be in hindsight a brilliant Fibonacci trade setup.

Trade what you see!

March 25, 2017April 2, 2017

What’s The Deal With Bonds

With the stock markets entering 2017 rallying into all-time highs, bonds have gotten very little attention. Or rather, they are just getting very negative attention. I really don’t like all the high-yield U.S. bonds and junk bonds that seems to get most of that attention. I think if you going to buy U.S. bonds, you have to look at Treasuries. For those that don’t know, buying a bond is basically lending money with the expectation that you will receive your money back at the end of some time period and receive interest payments while you wait. With the backing of the U.S. government, which I hope we can still rely on over these next 4 years, bonds have always been thought of as the safest investment an investor can make.

Taking a look at the $TLT as a proxy for all long-term Treasury bonds, we see that bond prices have risen dramatically in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Most recently, however, prices have taken a beating since the election of Donald Trump. Many screamed it was the end of bonds and the start of a new bearish cycle in the bond market.

I just don’t believe it. Looking long-term, bonds have simply corrected from all-time highs (in the $TLT). Prices have settled in the Fibonacci levels drawn off the entire rally in bond prices since the lows in 2004 (again, according to the $TLT). In fact, bond prices could certainly go lower from here… and still be in a correction. So I hesitate in calling the end of bonds as we know it. Rather, it could be just the beginning….of new life in bonds.

March 23, 2017March 23, 2017

Nothing More Left in the Aussie

The Australian dollar set off the new year rallying pretty much across the board. Even after some consolidation, the Australian dollar attempted to push the Great British pound to new lows but failed just below the 1.6000 support level. Since that failed new low that put in a higher low than the previous low, the $GBPAUD has rallied over 400 pips to trade at 2-month highs.

The move to 1.6400 has ran up against resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Swing buyers at the lows may seek to book profits here, especially ahead of the weekend. But it is unlikely that this $GBPAUD rally exhausts here. Even if the GBP drops on the Article 50 trigger event next week, bids are very likely to step in on that dip. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is concerned with slowing wages in its economy. This concern prevents the RBA from increasing interest rates despite a still-strong housing market. A weak Australian dollar could continue to fuel this rally right into the 1.6700 resistance level. I think that is the line in the sand for the $GBPAUD. There are former highs at that level as well as the 61.8% Fibonacci level. While I expect profit-taking at 1.6700, a break higher will signal that a larger reversal is in play for the $GBPAUD.

March 1, 2017August 28, 2018

Should you bet against Oprah?

I was skeptical when $WTW, the Weight Watchers stock, surged early today after the company reported very optimistic projections for future growth. The cynic in me must always question a rally. I noticed that the market shrugged off the fact that Weight Watchers actually missed revenue expectations despite growing subscribers by 10%. However, after reading more about their newest member to the Board, I’ve come to respect the clout that Oprah may bring to win more subscribers.

Sure subscribers are up in the fourth quarter. It was the holiday season. But I can appreciate now, during after hours, that there should be another bump in this first quarter thanks to New Year’s resolutions. I’ve seen the new 2017 Oprah commercials. Guiding higher for the next report is a great seasonal play that may (or may not) play out for shareholders.

The next thing on my mind about this stock this morning was the insider risk posed by Oprah’s celebrity owning a piece of the company. Smaller investors should watch if Oprah exercises those options or not. That would be quite an increase in demand. I actually thought Oprah might unload stock. But I was reminded by MarketWatch that Oprah just might acquire more stocks, not less.

…keep in mind that when the company disclosed in October 2015 that Winfrey bought about 6.4 million shares at $6.79 a share, the company also said it granted her options to buy another 3.5 million shares at an exercise price of $6.97.

So the insider risk actually leans favorable for smaller shareholders.

My conclusion this morning was to sell $WTW at $20 and be done with it. But if I think more like a trader, I have to ask if $WTW is still a good value now below $20. Will it return to $80? I don’t know. But can it return to $28? Let’s just say that I do believe Oprah could win the presidency.

February 18, 2017February 18, 2017

ON AIR with #FuturesRadio

This week, I was honored to be back on Futures Radio. It’s always an amazing feeling to know your work is respected beyond the forex sphere. Futures are a special instrument with the element of time added to the mix. However, Anthony Crudele, the show host and creator, is big technical trader. So he started a new series on Futures Radio talking with different traders about how they use technical analysis in their trading. Mine is Episode 2. Enjoy ??

You can listen to my first episode on Futures Radio.
Premium trade setups with targets and stops are available for traders looking for specific direction with trading the GBP.

February 17, 2017February 17, 2017

Is This The TOP?

No. But I got you to click on the article so thank you. And hear me out.

Two years ago, the S&P 500 ($SPX) soared to then new all-time highs. But at that time, those new highs did not have momentum behind them. In fact, price diverged with momentum, measured by the RSI, for all of 2013 and 2014. It was finally in 2015 where equities started to falter. And at this time last year in 2016, prices in the $SPX fell over 14%. Some started to predict another stock market crash.

Instead, a couple things happened with the technical indicators that I watch. First, momentum had worked itself into bearish territory. So there was plenty of room at that point in 2016 for bulls to push price and still remain now comfortably bullish at even higher prices. That has panned out.

Secondly, the lows at the 1800 support level was a major support level. Price had dipped to this support level before and had held above it.

Lastly, the lows at 1808 also found support in the zone of Fibonacci levels. In fact the low is a pip shy of the 50% Fibonacci level. This weakness in stock prices proved to be a mere correction of the tremendous rally after the 2013 lows.

I say all that to make clear a very important point about today’s new all-time highs. There is absolutely none of that happening now. Momentum is supporting these new highs. The RSI is well into bullish territory and edging into overbought territory. An overbought market will eventually dip lower but it will be met with so many buyers who either missed this rally or are adding to their current long positions that the $SPX will quickly move to new highs again.

Regardless of what we think of the 45th president of the United States, it is only price that pays.

What a disaster ??? #ThanksObama https://t.co/kMbcChIhY4

— Lydia Idem Finkley (@faithmight) February 17, 2017

I am a registered investment advisor with FM CAPITAL GROUP. Our vision is to manage capital with the intent of building client wealth in investments that positively impact our communities.

January 16, 2017January 18, 2017

Quid Report from Written Word to Spoken Word

HAPPY NEW YEAR TRADERS!!

2017 is here and we are back in the saddle! In an attempt to deliver better value to you, I am switching the format of the Quid Report. I will no longer deliver the 20-page written report once every week. Instead! I will deliver a live broadcast THREE times every week.

The video format will allow me to deliver insights and calls on the GBP pairs as the market opens on Sunday/early Monday instead of waiting until after the New York close on Monday. So you all will be able to get ahead of those moves and see what I see as I was writing the report.

Broadcasting videos will also allow me to better interact with you and answer questions right then as we are all looking at the same charts. Lastly, the videos will allow me to deliver these insights in a timely fashion which was starting to become a big problem.

I hope this change in delivery format is well received. Please continue to give me feedback as you always do!

Cheers to happy trades in 2017!

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