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Sterling Digest, May 17 2012: blame the eurozone

Greece, The Economist cover
With a new election looming, Greece is slouching towards the drachma

An interesting theme has caught fire in the markets in recently: BLAME EUROPE. The entire world blames the Eurozone for global economic slow down, weak markets, and high inflation. The Eurozone blames Greece. The Greeks blame the government. The government blames the markets. The markets punish the euro.

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1.60 The Big Figure

60 Yonge Street
The Bigga Figure

The market loves magic numbers. And the one on radar is 1.60. GBP is dealing with 1.60 on 3 currency pairs that I follow. This is quite uncanny and ironic but maybe not so much coincidence. $GBPUSD, $GBPAUD, $GBPCAD is a strong dollar bloc. Their breakouts above 1.60 marked technical reversals across this bloc to new yearly highs. But this week’s breaks below 1.60 looks to undo all of that.

Looking back a year at $GBPUSD reveals that a break below 1.60 after breakout above only points to more weakness. What started as a correction has already turned to a reversal in the $GBPUSD today. @EdMatts did a great video explanation so good it was highlighted twice in the Sterling Digest.

$GBPAUD hasn’t held up in the past when it broke below 1.60 after new highs. Where it has held, price rallied for hundreds of pips before topping out.

GBPAUD daily chart

So now look at the $GPBCAD. It is still holding up as today’s low at 1.6003 is ahead of the big figure even if only by pips. It then bounced over 120 pips to settle at 1.6100 (as of this writing). A close above 1.60 keeps the pair bolstered for a rally higher. But with lower highs on the daily chart, a rally to met by sellers until buyers can prove themselves with new highs.

GBPCAD daily

Nonetheless suffice it to say that 1.60 is a serious psychological level for sterling at the moment. Trade what you see!

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Sterling Digest, May 16, 2012: cracks deepen

really nice looking coins from 1967, many with full lustre
Weak sterling still looks good

Sterling cracks from Friday that were glossed over on safe haven flows deepened today thanks to Bank of England Governor Mervyn King. Complete with a GDP downgrade for 2012, King’s inflation report weakened sterling across board. However, currency pairs like the $GBPCAD, $EURGBP and $GBPAUD are holding up quite well in the aftermath. General commodities weakness and euro woes continue to benefit GBP verus these currencies. These same conditions also benefited the USD as the $GBPUSD closes below 1.60 for the first time in 4 weeks.

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Sterling Digest, May 15 2012: safety status rules

50 British Pounds Sterling
Safety trumps economics

The safe haven sterling rallies on. After a dip in GBP on weak UK trade balance numbers, the $GBPAUD, $GBPCAD, $GBPNZD, and $EURGBP continued on in their strong sterling bull trend. The only currencies that gained on the safe sterling today are the almighty rulers of risk aversion: the greenback and yen.

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Sterling Digest, May 14 2012: safety trumps economics

Money makes the world go round
Investors want pounds

It appears that Friday’s theme was mere profit-taking as good news out of Canada and US was excuse enough to move some money off the table. Sterling is back on trend today with comm dolls leading the way. $GBPAUD, $GBPNZD and $GBPCAD have all broken out above their Friday highs in opening market action. While fundamentals point toward a deteriorating UK economic picture, risk flows dominate with GBP enjoys European safe haven status.

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Sterling Digest, May 11 2012: the cracks appear

Franco-German Summit at the Austerity Euro Cafe
Hollande may not be any different for the euro

Sterling ends the week weak across the board. Profit-taking was the theme this Friday trading session as investors banked pips on a strong bull trend in sterling that has been raging for weeks. As we head into the weekend, the question that traders start to ask is: did we witness a correction this week or the beginning of a reversal as the market comes to grips with a very weak UK economy relative to others in the G10 such as Canada, Australia, and the US. Watch the major psychological level at 1.6000 in $GBPUSD, $GBPAUD, and $GBPCAD for answers into the new trading week ahead.

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Exit The Euro

Chart: the deleveraging process is desynchronized and heterogeneous

It has to be a very scary thing when your banks, companies, households and even governments can’t pay down its debt. Can a currency be made worthless based on its debt load in a world where money is electronic and can be minted with a push of a button? We just may soon find out. Exit the euro.

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Sterling Digest, May 10 2012: NO QE4

The Beautiful British Pound Sterling
Beautiful trend in sterling continues on

The euro sank this week as the Eurozone became unhinged in political elections that ousted leaders who led the charge for austerity. $GBPUSD followed in sympathy but today’s BoE decision to hold off on another round of quantitative easing (QE4) has lifted sterling across the board. As with any strong trend, the contrarians are circling. Many bears are out looking to short sterling especially in $EURGBP and $GBPUSD. But this bull trend in sterling is not one to step in front of. Don’t fight the flows!

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Sterling Digest, May 4 2012: NFP preview

JOB Toulouse
Jobs remain important catalyst for markets

The spotlight event of the month for the forex markets is today’s US NFP release. As USD sentiment seems to have shifted to fundamental flows rather than risk flows, a disappointing number could weaken the USD. $GBPUSD has found support at 1.6160 all week. US NFP should be a catalyst for further correction or a continuation of the bullish trend.

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Sterling Digest, May 2 2012: European dealings

collage of the economist covers featuring the euro
Euro woes benefit sterling

$EURGBP has broken to new yearly lows in today’s trading as sterling continues to gain against the euro. UK economic data continues to come in mixed but, despite the consensus, PMI numbers above 50 suggests the economy has signs of strength.

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