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Tag: BTC

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The Dangers of Bull-Traps and Bear-Traps

A bull-trap is a false signal that shows a decreasing trend in a stock, currency, index, or other financial instrument has reversed and is now heading upwards, when in fact, the value of the security will continue to fall. Traders or investors that acted on the buy signal generates losses on resulting long positions.

A bear-trap on the other hand is a technical pattern that occurs when the performance of a stock, index or other financial instruments incorrectly signals a reversal of a rising price trend. The trap is thus a false reversal of a declining price trend.

Many traders especially lose money after being caught up in traps. Many investors have lost huge funds in traps. Traps sometimes might take months or years if a reversal occurs at all. Traps affect the mental health of traders and investors.

Avoiding Traps In Trading

  1. Practise risk management
  2. Never ignore the long-time patterns before making entries.
  3. Don’t try to be too early, no one awards you for being the first trader.
  4. Never get into a trade when market squeezes.
  5. Don’t trade the initial breakout, watch out for the next few candlesticks to confirm.
  6. Trade in the direction of the main trend

Taking a look at the BTC chart. In December 2020, the bulls broke out the initial resistance level in 2017 at $19,700. Ever since this breakout occurred, the price is yet to reverse. The closest reversal occurred in June 2021 when the price reached $28,300. I want to believe most BTC bears who shorted BTC in December 2020 must have been liquidated.

Also, the bulls reached a new all-time high in April 2021 at $64,700. Price reversed to $28,300 in June 2021. The bulls are back into more action as the price is currently at $57,200. Between February and May 2021, each time price opens above $57,000, it never closes above the $57,000. Traders and investors who invested above $57,000 must have been trapped. If the price reaches an all-time high, it ceases to be a bull trap.

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THE NEXT CRYPTO BULL RUN: BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM

Since Bitcoin was launched in 2009, price has maintained a strong bullish movement with about 410,000% gain, from $0.09 in 2009 to its current price at $36,700. The current $BTC market capitalization stands at $678Billion.  Ethereum, on the other hand, is the second largest crypto with current market capitalization at $299Billion after its launch in 2015.

This signifies that most crypto assets are less than a decade. Ethereum has since its inception has been publicly accepted by Crypto traders and investors. Hence, the reason for the bullish movement. Just like other markets, the crypto market is a bull and bear market. High leverage usage must have wiped off some accounts due to greed. Currently, the crypto market is about $1.62Trillion with Bitcoin and Ethereum having over 61% of the market share. There are other thousands of cryptos newly introduced e.g. Ripple, Dash, Tether, Litecoin, Cardano etc. all of these make up the remaining 39% share of the crypto market.

Bitcoin, in June 2020, was below $10,000. As at today, Bitcoin is above $36,000. Ethereum in June 2020 was below $300, the price of Ethereum today stands at $2,600. In the last one year, Ethereum has done far better than Bitcoin in investment gains. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum reached an all-time high in 2021. Ethereum reached $4,370 in may 2021 and Bitcoin reached $63,000 in March 2021. With Bitcoin and Ethereum having 61% of the total crypto market, they both have a major influence in the price movement of other coins. The increased acceptability of Bitcoin and Ethereum will determine the acceptability of other coins.

After the all time high was reached in March 2021 at $63,000, price was almost halved after it reached $31,200.

About $30,000 was wiped out in the price of Bitcoin last month, which made it the worst month in Bitcoin history with 41% lost from the highest price. Bitcoin has a very strong resistance at $43,980, a bullish breakout from this level might result in a fake out as price on the weekly chart is currently in the lower region of the Bollinger bands. The recent dip affected most of the assets in the Crypto market. Price of $BTC might rally towards $44,000, but the bears might push the price lower to reach $19,000.  If a dip occurs, this will reflect in the prices of other cryptos. The next dip might also push price of Ethereum to $1,500.

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WILL BITCOIN PRICE EVER REACH $60,000 AGAIN?

This is the big question begging for answers in the heart of many traders and investors.

In the past, there had been many speculations predicting the price of Bitcoin to reach $100,000. Attempting to hit that $100,000, BTC reached the all-time high at $61,000 in March 2021. Since then, price has been retesting around $61,000.

Using the daily Chart, BTC in the past shows that price has been overbought. There are over 4 instances of price being overbought on the RSI with the bulls pushing price from $3,940 in March 2020 to $61,000 in March 2021. BTC has been able to do 15X since March 2020. The weekly time frame revealed the bull dominance since the beginning of the year 2020.

As it stands, the weekly charts show strong bearish dominance which might last for about a year or more. As price could not break the resistance level of $61,000 to the upside, throughout the month of May 2021, price has been ranging between resistance Level 1 and resistance level 2.

Yesterday, price was able to break the support level at $43,680. Many blamed Elon Musk for dumping the use of Bitcoin to purchase Tesla earlier in the week, which might have made $BTC to dip. The current price of $BTC is below $40,000, with the price of $BTC finding a new resistance around $43,680. A continuous dip might push price to $19,000.There is currently no bullish opportunity on the chart. A breakout of price to the upside, above resistance level 2 might push price upwards. However, the breakout might be a fake one.

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Bitcoin Bulls Are Becoming More Active

Almost all hopes were lost by investors when Bitcoin price took a dip. The year 2018 was hugely bearish for $BTC. $BTC’s dip was over 84% in a single year. In 2019, however, there have been low activities in the Bitcoin market. But in the last three months, the Bitcoin bulls are beginning to drive the market upwards. This recent upward movement might push the prices of alternative coins up. The price of $BTC on the Bollinger bands from the upper region of the bands is yet to cross to the lower region. A reversal might have just occurred because a breakout from the trendlines have occurred.

Bitcoin Monthly Chart

RSI is yet to show an oversold from the selloff which occurred last year. Ichimoku is yet to give a signal for a bullish move. With all indications, the price of $BTC might reach 10000 from its current 5,241. This might amaze you because hopes have been lost in the past few months. The long trendlines have been broken to the upward direction.

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Bitcoin Might Fall Back To Major Support Level


There was a sudden rise in the price of $BTCUSD on the 8th of February after a long range in price. Price initially was around 3360 before the upward movement to 3631 on the same day. After the bullish movement, a range in the price of $BTCUSD began. Two weeks later, $BTCUSD price began a bullish movement on the 19th of February which reached the resistance level of 3981.

On the RSI chart, price of $BTCUSD has been overbought at least twice in February. $BTCUSD price might fall to 3500 due to overbought positions. $BTCUSD bulls tried to move price about $600 in February. The bears seem to be in control of the Crypto world, giving little chances to the bulls. In the 4hr timeframe, price of $BTCUSD might fall about $500 in the next few days. Ichimoku is still showing a bullish trend which may likely give a reversal signal.

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Crypto Lovers, Bitcoin Is Currently Oversold

Despite low volatility in recent times, there may be few huge profitable chances. To take a look at Bitcoin, the year 2018 favoured sellers. In 2018, $BTCUSD started at 13228 level and closed at 3665.33. There were several speculations from few experts that Bitcoin will continue the uptrend as in 2017 but it went all the way down in 2018. The highest point Bitcoin reached in 2018 was 17165 which was in January and the lowest in December at 3172.28. Many investors have lost interest due to the uncertainties of $BTCUSD thereby reducing demand. Due to the lower volatility, investors might not necessarily trade $BTCUSD for the long term.

Bitcoin 4-hour chart

The first major bullish movement in the year might start soon if more buyers come into the market. RSI on the 4hr chart shows an oversold region for the past 5 trading days. Price is yet to cross to the upper part of the Bollinger bands but deliberate efforts of $BTCUSD buyers could push price to 4092 from its current 3564.

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THE JOURNEY OF CRYPTOS CONTINUE

Having been oversold for a while, Bitcoin continues moving in a direction majorly for long term traders and hope will be restored soon for some profit. Bitcoin went down last week to $6000 from a previous resistance level of $8,300. Since then, it has held on to a strong support level and might increase its value only for a short while. Its next resistance might be $6,800. However, this is dependent on the number of buyers to go long, if not, it continues shorting.

For Ripple, the next major resistance might be 0.4140 but since its ranging now, so it seems indecisive. The major reason for a buy is because it has been oversold for the past weeks just like bitcoin.


For Ethereum, it has been oversold at $278 to 1 Ethereum for 2 weeks. The next major resistance might be $395. This could also be a swing for a continuous downtrend.

Indications showing for the next few weeks: The more buyers, the higher the price of crypto currencies and new resistance levels will develop. For now, it is ranging and it’s not too good to enter trades in a ranging market.

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New Year, New Markets

Happy new year! It is 2018 and the only market that doesn’t sleep now is the cryptocurrency market. This is a brand new market being created right before our very eyes. What a time to be alive! No matter the asset or investment vehicle, human nature still reigns supreme. And in a pure market where human nature reigns (and not algos), technical analysis works so beautifully. But if you trade based on the news, you’ve been in for a wild ride. While the king of cryptos is Bitcoin ($BTC.X), 2017 saw an explosion in blockchain innovation that allowed many other coins to be created by just about anybody. This explosion in coins led to an explosion in wealth creation as buyers and sellers raced to the markets. Traders, investors and techies from the West to Zimbabwe have been making money in cryptos and everybody wants in.

Seeing the frenzy for information, I decided to host my first investment event, “What is Bitcoin, Anyway”. I rescheduled this event 3 times since September. I was originally going to talk about the importance of investing. (*yawn*) I forgot to order food. I also forgot to send out invitations. It was my first event! I was concentrating so hard on getting the talk and presentation right that the event production went right out the window. LOL oh well. Thankfully, my office is in a WeWork so the venue hid my blunders well. I had a good audience and the presentation was so well received that I was asked to do another.

What is bitcoin anyway flier

Yes, I will have another crypto event despite the crash in cryptocurrencies right now all across the board. While I understand the hesitancy in buying cryptos, I also think it is irresponsible to write off any investment opportunity due to ignorance. However, it is also irresponsible to invest, in a market this new and still unregulated, alone or naive. Do as much learning as you can. Read, watch and ask questions. Hire an investment adviser. Get a mentor. Every investment story is the same, so always do your homework — trade what you see, not what you hear.

And stay tuned for my next event, First Friday Pasadena. February is the #crypto edition?

 

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