ON THE AIR with F.A.C.E.

Early this week, I was back on the air with Dale Pinkert. In front of hundreds of live traders in the audience, I walked through my rationale for guppy, a bullish cable, a bearish euro and a continued dumping of the Canadian dollar:

 

There are ebbs and flows to every market. Trade what you see. Invest with a pro. [sponsored]

ON THE AIR with F.A.C.E.

Happy new year to the Forex Analytix team! This team of traders are experts and veterans in forex trading. Many of them I have been following for many years on Twitter (@nictrades, @spz_trader, @forexstophunter) and even before there was a Twitter (@pipczar). But the F.A.C.E. community is also full of many expert traders as well as new traders. So when I am asked to come on the show and discuss my views of the market, I consider it quite an honor. The respect, questions and great feedback I get from this team and audience makes it such pleasure to return.

Dale has such great timing as I made my first 2018 appearance on F.A.C.E. right before the Great British pound went on this monster breakout today. I revealed a few secrets that even Dale admitted he hadn’t heard from me before on his shows. The specific levels have been left far behind after Wednesday’s price action but the trading principles I discuss can be applied even now. Enjoy the show!

ON AIR with F.A.C.E

I spend every Sunday with students looking at markets for the upcoming trading week. So I was happy to share this week’s insights with Dale Pinkert this morning of the Forex Analytix Community Experience (F.A.CE.). While F.A.C.E. may be a new community, Dale certainly is not. He is an expert trader who has great experience interviewing the best personalities and experts in the business. So it is always an honor to be asked to discuss my views on markets. The nugget I dropped today that Dale really liked:

Correlations are shot. There are no correlations right now in the market.

What do I mean? Watch my interview and market review to find out.

The Youth vs. The Market

Now that the markets have opened after the week that ended in a hung parliament, I, a mere trader, can now make exclaim,

Theresa May made the biggest mistake of her short tenure as prime minister. FULL STOP.

She completely discounted the voice and vote of the youth. Since the June 23rd referendum vote, it was clear that young British voters in no way approved of a Brexit. But they didn’t vote. Or so it was reported. In my mind, as a disgusted Democratic sitting in California, why would the Prime Minister ever give the citizenry an election so soon after she stepped into office? Americans are waiting excruciatingly for the 2018 midterm elections. Can you imagine trump ever declaring a snap election to prove a point? We could only hope. But I digress. Back to Great Britain. As the market rallied in anticipation of the election, I thought it was market cheer for a new change in Parliament. Surely, folks would oust the party that campaigned for and got their Brexit. The youth were not going to make this mistake twice.

And that’s exactly what they did. The Party of Brexit lost its majority hold. And the voters gave that majority to NO ONE. Fucking brilliant. If Prime Minister May was truly engaged with the public, she would’ve never declared that snap election. She counted on increased apathy to secure a mandate for Brexit. And as such, her party not only lost their Parliamentary majority, nobody won the majority. And the hung parliament just completely changed the fundamental landscape for the Great British pound.

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ON AIR with #FuturesRadio

This week, I was honored to be back on Futures Radio. It’s always an amazing feeling to know your work is respected beyond the forex sphere. Futures are a special instrument with the element of time added to the mix. However, Anthony Crudele, the show host and creator, is big technical trader. So he started a new series on Futures Radio talking with different traders about how they use technical analysis in their trading. Mine is Episode 2. Enjoy ☺️

You can listen to my first episode on Futures Radio.
Premium trade setups with targets and stops are available for traders looking for specific direction with trading the GBP.

I Survived the Flash Crash

The GBP just crashed in epic proportions. The official number is -5% in 2 minutes and 3 seconds.

GBPUSD 15 MINUTE CHART

It is already being called a flash crash because of the sheer scale of it. And the craziest thing about it is that we were on the right side of it. The following quote is from this week’s Quid Report (Volume 79):

The follow-through lower already this week proves correct the assertion in Volume 76 – that the resumption of the long-term downtrend that is the Great British pound has indeed taken place…It is very likely that this bear trend is the direction sterling trades for the remainder of the calendar year.

The rest of the report this week goes on to outline the setups that took place at the beginning of this week. Most of the targets had been hit before the flash crash except for two trades. These positions are up HUGE.  I haven’t seen this much money on a single trade in a long time.

I SURVIVED THE FLASH CRASH….

So I immediately issued a tweet to all Quid Report readers. This is not verbatim but it was definitely to this effect:

keep calm and carry on

If you were short the GBP ahead of this flash crash – GOOD FOR YOU! KUDOS! How you manage this trade is up to you. But no one will blame you if you close out these positions for all this big money. Taking big profits is the name of the game!

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Is She Baaaa-ack?

The new trading week is packed with market-moving economic releases out of the UK. Inflation, the UK jobs report and retail sales are all released ahead of the event risk of the week. The event risk of the week for the Great British pound is the BoE interest rate announcement. All of these releases will give a better picture of the British economy in the aftermath of the Brexit shock. It is very likely that these releases are more robust than the market expects. If so, the BoE will not have a reason to move on monetary policy this week causing the Great British pound to rally further. More sterling strength will allow the pound currency pairs to finish consolidation just as the summer doldrums have officially come to an end.

How shall we trade the GBP this week?

Well, we came into the week with a ton of GBP strength.

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART GBPAUD 4 HOUR CHART GBPNZD 4 HOUR CHART

With CPI and regular wages both weaker than expected, inflation is not raging at all in the British economy.

Great Britain average earnings annual growth rates, seasonally adjusted
Great Britain average earnings annual growth rates, seasonally adjusted. Source: UK ONS

The lack of inflation in wages, though still relatively high, will keep the BoE away from any tightening measures. Coupled with weak consumer prices, the BoE may signal a further loosening monetary policy this week. As such, the GBP strength that started the week is starting to fizzle as we get closer to the actual Bank of England announcement this week. The Friday close will be significant for direction sterling into the end of the year. The summer is officially over. Volatility and traders are back and with them a clear trend is likely to emerge.

Euro Finally Breaks Under Weight of ECB

Despite breaking to new highs now at 0.8724, momentum is still unable to match the new highs in price with new highs on the RSI. The $EURGBP moved lower off the highs last week but found support at the 50% Fibonacci level at 0.8486. With price moving lower off the new highs, the $EURGBP is biased to move lower as the new trading week gets underway. Despite the close above the key 0.8500-psychological level, the $EURGBP remains biased to the downside to start the new trading week. If the $EURGBP is unable to move above the 0.8600-resistance level, then it can be expected to move to new lows. A Friday close below the 0.8500-support level may invalidate the current bullish bias in the short-term and supports a deeper correction of the summer rally.

EURGBP WEEKLY CHART

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governor Mario Draghi has made it clear that the path for future monetary policy action is further easing and accommodation. This dovish bias includes cutting interest rates again, as soon as September. However, contrary to these euro fundamentals, markets continue to buy euro. It is likely that September will be no different. In fact, the euro may accelerate its rally higher if the ECB fails to deliver this highly anticipated move to further accommodate monetary policy. The economic calendar is very busy out of the Eurozone this week. A slew of PMI data from the core European economies are due for release this week. The event risk of the week for the euro is the release of the German jobs data. As the strongest economy in the Eurozone, a weak jobs report may accelerate $EURGBP weakness.

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART

OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK: After breaking back below the channel last week, the $EURGBP has been unable to move higher. The trendline of the channel has acted as resistance capping the rally out of the Fibonacci buy zone on the weekly chart. Sellers step in on rallies back to the trendline… [subscribe]

ON AIR with Benzinga’s #PreMarket Prep Show

As a sterling trader, I feel inundated by talks of the UK’s upcoming EU referendum vote. Well all forex traders have been feeling the fatigue of Brexit news that has besieged the markets especially when the calendar turned to June. Today is exactly one week from the imminent vote. My homegirl, @piptrain, put this request out into the universe.

So when I got on air with the guys at Benzinga the next day, they toyed with hosting such a panel. In case it doesn’t materialize, hear my thoughts on Brexit and the effects I believe are in store for sterling and how we should trade it.

 

ECB Keeps Euro Happy

This was our look at the EUR/GBP at the beginning of the week, ahead of the ECB:

The recent consolidation in the EUR/GBP was signaled by the bearish divergence at the highs. Now, the end of this move lower is being signaled by a bullish divergence at the lows on the RSI of the daily chart. The EUR/GBP starts the new trading week bouncing along the bottom of the buy zone. Buyers continue to keep price bid as momentum builds despite being in bearish territory. Though not a true bullish divergence because price is not at new lows on the daily chart, it is noted that momentum is no longer making new lows despite the new lows to 0.7564. This may be a nascent signal of bullish price action in this new trading week. Furthermore, after the move to 0.7564, the subsequent higher lows coinciding with building momentum on the RSI give the EUR/GBP a bullish bias. Despite the recently bearish price action, the EUR/GBP targets a move to the upside in the new trading week. A continuation of the rally is confirmed on a close above the key 0.7700 level.

EURGBP DAILY CHART

Premium trade setups with targets and stops are published in the EUR/GBP Outlook for the Week in Volume 64, this week’s Quid Report.