ON THE AIR with F.A.C.E.

Early this week, I was back on the air with Dale Pinkert. In front of hundreds of live traders in the audience, I walked through my rationale for guppy, a bullish cable, a bearish euro and a continued dumping of the Canadian dollar:

 

There are ebbs and flows to every market. Trade what you see. Invest with a pro. [sponsored]

ON THE AIR with F.A.C.E.

Happy new year to the Forex Analytix team! This team of traders are experts and veterans in forex trading. Many of them I have been following for many years on Twitter (@nictrades, @spz_trader, @forexstophunter) and even before there was a Twitter (@pipczar). But the F.A.C.E. community is also full of many expert traders as well as new traders. So when I am asked to come on the show and discuss my views of the market, I consider it quite an honor. The respect, questions and great feedback I get from this team and audience makes it such pleasure to return.

Dale has such great timing as I made my first 2018 appearance on F.A.C.E. right before the Great British pound went on this monster breakout today. I revealed a few secrets that even Dale admitted he hadn’t heard from me before on his shows. The specific levels have been left far behind after Wednesday’s price action but the trading principles I discuss can be applied even now. Enjoy the show!

ON AIR with F.A.C.E

I spend every Sunday with students looking at markets for the upcoming trading week. So I was happy to share this week’s insights with Dale Pinkert this morning of the Forex Analytix Community Experience (F.A.CE.). While F.A.C.E. may be a new community, Dale certainly is not. He is an expert trader who has great experience interviewing the best personalities and experts in the business. So it is always an honor to be asked to discuss my views on markets. The nugget I dropped today that Dale really liked:

Correlations are shot. There are no correlations right now in the market.

What do I mean? Watch my interview and market review to find out.

The Youth vs. The Market

Now that the markets have opened after the week that ended in a hung parliament, I, a mere trader, can now make exclaim,

Theresa May made the biggest mistake of her short tenure as prime minister. FULL STOP.

She completely discounted the voice and vote of the youth. Since the June 23rd referendum vote, it was clear that young British voters in no way approved of a Brexit. But they didn’t vote. Or so it was reported. In my mind, as a disgusted Democratic sitting in California, why would the Prime Minister ever give the citizenry an election so soon after she stepped into office? Americans are waiting excruciatingly for the 2018 midterm elections. Can you imagine trump ever declaring a snap election to prove a point? We could only hope. But I digress. Back to Great Britain. As the market rallied in anticipation of the election, I thought it was market cheer for a new change in Parliament. Surely, folks would oust the party that campaigned for and got their Brexit. The youth were not going to make this mistake twice.

And that’s exactly what they did. The Party of Brexit lost its majority hold. And the voters gave that majority to NO ONE. Fucking brilliant. If Prime Minister May was truly engaged with the public, she would’ve never declared that snap election. She counted on increased apathy to secure a mandate for Brexit. And as such, her party not only lost their Parliamentary majority, nobody won the majority. And the hung parliament just completely changed the fundamental landscape for the Great British pound.

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This is the Correction We’ve Been Waiting On

After waiting weeks for the $GBPUSD to put in a correction of this recent bull rally, cable finally staged a real correction last week. Since the end of April (exactly 4 weeks ago now), the $GBPUSD attracted buyers at the 1.2850 level never allowing for a Fibonacci retracement to take place. For the entire month of May, these shallow dips would produce new highs. So when the rally finally exhausted at the 1.3050 resistance level, the break of these lows around the 1.2850 level was a welcome development for traders waiting for the opportunity to buy the GBP. The correction took cable as low as 1.2774 on Friday. The 1.2774 low has confluence with both former highs and lows at 1.2772 and the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.2786. The market has been waiting on this correction the entire month of May.

What’s in question now is whether or not the $GBPUSD continues lower or if buyers will now start to step in after this correction. And right now, buyers have stepped in. The $GBPUSD bounced on Friday right at the 1.2772 support level but opens the week already finding resistance at the former lows around the 1.2850 level. The former floor has become the ceiling, which may indicate that further weakness may be in store for the $GBPUSD. As such, we find Friday’s buyers taking profits against this 1.2850 resistance level as price is unable to move higher in early week trading action. This initial weakness is also attracting sellers who are now anticipating the failed high at 1.2850 to signal more weakness to move cable below the Friday low.

GBPUSD DAILY CHART

If further downside price action is in store for the $GBPUSD , we anticipate a break below the 1.2774 Friday low to the next support level at 1.2700. There is confluence at this next support level with the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.2706. As the market continues to experience risk aversion flows and anticipate a rosy U.S. jobs report, we could see the $GBPUSD continue to weaken to new lows even as low as the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Once at these levels, any surprise USD weakness will catapult the $GBPUSD higher from what will be in hindsight a brilliant Fibonacci trade setup.

Trade what you see!

ON AIR with #FuturesRadio

This week, I was honored to be back on Futures Radio. It’s always an amazing feeling to know your work is respected beyond the forex sphere. Futures are a special instrument with the element of time added to the mix. However, Anthony Crudele, the show host and creator, is big technical trader. So he started a new series on Futures Radio talking with different traders about how they use technical analysis in their trading. Mine is Episode 2. Enjoy ☺️

You can listen to my first episode on Futures Radio.
Premium trade setups with targets and stops are available for traders looking for specific direction with trading the GBP.

Don’t be Pound Foolish

The new trading week has been very busy out of the UK this week. Inflation may be heating up in both regular pay wages and consumer prices. Perhaps the accelerated weakness in the Great British pound may start to feed inflation as the increasing price of imports may be passed on to consumers. Additionally, the low exchange rate may also forces companies to raise wages to keep up with this rising price of goods and services. The PMI numbers that had trended below the 50.0-threshold level earlier in the year have started to recover. The October releases revealed robust PMI numbers in all sectors of the economy. It will be interesting if this recovery in the PMI numbers this month will persist. If so, building strength may allow the Great British pound downtrend to finally correct in the short-term. Any strength in sterling, however, is expected to be temporary.

After weeks of decline and new, multi-year lows, the Great British pound has staged a correction. Depending on your chart, it has been impressive and not so impressive all at the same time. But it has been a correction nonetheless. And it has allowed swing traders to reset short positions as currency pairs like the $GBPNZD and $GBPUSD trade at essentially all-time, low levels.

GBPNZD DAILY CHART

This Friday close is the third consecutive weekly close below the major 1.7702-support level. This is the first time there have been consecutive bearish closes below the 1.7702-level on any timeframe (Volume 79). However, with building bullish momentum on the RSI of the daily chart, the $GBPNZD may stage a correction off the lows. The failed low of last week also signals a bullish move higher.

The highs this week have not been able to get quite as high at the Fibonacci levels. And that failure is actually evidence of the strong bear trend in the $GBPNZD.

GBPUSD DAILY CHART

The $GBPUSD currently trades at levels not seen since 1985. As such, there is very little technical support at these price levels. However, the $GBPUSD has started to forge out minor support at the 1.2160, 1.2154 and 1.2132 levels. This support zone seems to have stalled selling in cable for the time being. Without a close below the 1.2000-psychological level, the $GBPUSD begins to build bullish sentiment in the very short-term.

Cable has been coiling between the 1.2350 and 1.2100 levels since the flash crash. While the defense of those 1.2089 lows this week emboldened bulls, it has not been enough to spark a rally to the psychological level at 1.2500. This failure keeps the $GBPUSD bearish despite the rally off the new lows this week.

All in all, sellers continue to show up at the highs. The rally has totally underwhelmed. Only against the JPY has the correction moved as high as expected. While there could be an argument that Brexit woes and implications are already priced into the market, price action seems to indicate otherwise. With these currency pairs trading at these low levels, the GBP has the certain potential to move lower still…until it doesn’t. Be careful out there. Don’t chase the price action!

All quotes and charts taken from this week’s Quid Report, Volume 82. Full report has trade setups and includes more currency pairs.

I Survived the Flash Crash

The GBP just crashed in epic proportions. The official number is -5% in 2 minutes and 3 seconds.

GBPUSD 15 MINUTE CHART

It is already being called a flash crash because of the sheer scale of it. And the craziest thing about it is that we were on the right side of it. The following quote is from this week’s Quid Report (Volume 79):

The follow-through lower already this week proves correct the assertion in Volume 76 – that the resumption of the long-term downtrend that is the Great British pound has indeed taken place…It is very likely that this bear trend is the direction sterling trades for the remainder of the calendar year.

The rest of the report this week goes on to outline the setups that took place at the beginning of this week. Most of the targets had been hit before the flash crash except for two trades. These positions are up HUGE.  I haven’t seen this much money on a single trade in a long time.

I SURVIVED THE FLASH CRASH….

So I immediately issued a tweet to all Quid Report readers. This is not verbatim but it was definitely to this effect:

keep calm and carry on

If you were short the GBP ahead of this flash crash – GOOD FOR YOU! KUDOS! How you manage this trade is up to you. But no one will blame you if you close out these positions for all this big money. Taking big profits is the name of the game!

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#TBT to #FuturesRadio

I made my debut with the famous Anthony Crudele on #FuturesRadio last month just ahead of the Junior Olympics. It was an extremely hectic time and I know all my fellow “soccer” [insert any sport] moms and dads can relate. So I never got the chance to share this great interview that I had the pleasure to do. It was great to meet Anthony. He has interviewed many of the great traders on Twitter that I follow and respect. So when he reached out to me, I was thrilled to be considered.

The feedback has been awesome. Thanks to everyone who listened and shared it. Thanks again to Anthony. THANK YOU!

ON AIR with Futures Radio

Subscribers receive my research on all major GBP pairs at the beginning of the week, including access to @faithmightfx on Twitter for intraweek updates on the pound. AVAILABLE NOW.

ON AIR with Benzinga’s #PreMarket Prep Show

As a sterling trader, I feel inundated by talks of the UK’s upcoming EU referendum vote. Well all forex traders have been feeling the fatigue of Brexit news that has besieged the markets especially when the calendar turned to June. Today is exactly one week from the imminent vote. My homegirl, @piptrain, put this request out into the universe.

So when I got on air with the guys at Benzinga the next day, they toyed with hosting such a panel. In case it doesn’t materialize, hear my thoughts on Brexit and the effects I believe are in store for sterling and how we should trade it.