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Twitter Has Lost All Its 2021 Gains

Twitter’s opening price at the beginning of 2021 was $54.22. Later in the first month of the year, the price fell to the lowest level in the year at $45.59. After the price fall to $45.59, the price rallied in February 2021 to reach an all-time high at $81.09. Since the all-time high was reached, prices began to go lower. There have been lower lows and lower highs, which has resulted in huge losses as all the $TWTR gains of 2021 have been lost. Twitter is currently at a -16% loss from the opening price of the year.

Weekly Chart

After Thanksgiving Day, the market opened at $46.54 and closed at $47.10. But on the 29th of November 2021, the price had a gap up from $51.84 which showed a bit of hope until Jack Dorsey announced his resignation as the CEO of Twitter. The share price of $TWTR closed at $45.78 yesterday after Parag Agrawal was announced as the new CEO of Twitter. Price is currently around the year’s support level at $45.59. RSI is currently at the oversold position even after the price is around the support level.

Daily Chart

The gap up at the opening of yesterday’s share price for Twitter made the price reach the upper region of the Bollinger Bands, but the price crossed lower to the lower region of the bands at the close of the market. There may be a call for the bulls as a new CEO is appointed. A few Indian-American CEOs have emerged as the CEOs of American Tech Companies, and their share prices have been doing excellently. As the Twitter bulls become more active, the price might reach $66 in the coming weeks.

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Who Wants To Buy TikTok?

The future of TikTok remains unknown. TikTok along ,with other popular Chinese based apps like WeChat, have come under scrutiny for its data sharing and alleged lack of data privacy. President Trump has ordered TikTok to either close its U.S. division or be acquired by another company.

Microsoft seems to have gained the most attraction to the app due to its user data potential while adding yet another platform to attract more consumers to its constantly expanding software capabilities. Despite Microsoft seeming to be the company that will buy Tiktok, Twitter has recently sparked an interest into the social media app as well.

Twitter over the years has gained attraction among users through its live streaming capabilities combined with its real time newsfeeds. Twitter has also more recently gained the spotlight through its newly enforced censorship policy regarding misinformation, which has been a catalyst for social media platforms to combat the spread of fake news. These defining attributes are what gives Twitter a leg-up on Microsoft and allows Twitter to easily integrate TikTok into its platform.

$TWTR has relative short-term strength with no foreseeable long-term gains.

According to our chart, $TWTR has had some similarity to $MSFT with its downtrends and corrections from the major March dip. On the contrary, $TWTR has been known to be the “underperformer” among other social media stocks. This is due to $TWTR history of having weak earnings its inability to break its lowest correction lows, and the never-ending political atmosphere that surrounds it. Based on the RSI and H, it is apparent that $TWTR can either be weak and volatile or steady with few and far corrections in between.

Overall, we believe $TWTR in the long-term investing won’t be a huge gainer but steady in terms of price gains with occasional lengthy troths. As for the short-term, we think that $TWTR performs its best under distress especially with the pandemic combined with its political affiliations. Therefore, gains can certainly be made in the short-term especially with $TWTR pattern of gaining before correcting itself.

The Future of TikTok

The popular social media app TikTok has taken millennials and Gen Zers by storm during the pandemic. It has become the video-sharing app of celebrities and influencers and has become a past time similar to scrolling through Instagram and Snapchat. TikTok has also, in recent months, become leverage of political warfare.

ByteDance (TikTok’s parent company) first began causing controversy in India. India banned TikTok for two weeks after border disputes between China had caused an insurrection between the two nations. As a result of this combined with the ongoing tariff war between the U.S. and China, President Trump announced earlier this week about dismantling TikTok due to potential data breaching. China, for years, has been known to tamper with U.S intellectual property. Now with its recently passed security laws, this could be something to carefully look at.

From an investment standpoint, ByteDance has no plans of releasing an IPO and is thought to be overvalued. This is because the app’s popularity recently gained serious attention and still has problems with much-needed consumer retention, especially outside of mainland China. Despite these shortcomings, there are still signs of potential growth with its recent attention through the media. This has especially been made apparent with Microsoft drawing interest to acquire the app. Microsoft wants TikTok because of its data potential. It was announced that Microsoft is heading into a deal with ByteDance for TikTok. It is simply now waiting for final approval from the U.S. government.

$MSFT has potential to be a great long-term buy.

After crashing to lows along with the broader market in mid-March, $MSFT bounced back and increased users among its Microsoft Teams video app and with its Xbox. This could also be attributed to its steady but consistent RSI at 60. Which expresses no giant volatile troths but does show uptake of more buyers coming in while still showing slight contractions which therefore confirm our Fib sequences. The recovery in price is supported by consistent RSI. Although, the contraction in price is being confirmed by the bearish divergence between price and momentum (RSI). Overall, $MSFT is clearly in an upward trend with the potential to continue to drive higher in the long-term. In the short-term, according to our highlighted Fib sequences and the bearish divergence between price and momentum, there looks to be some slight contraction before it starts to really prove its gains.

The Noisy Twitter Bird

Twitter has been making a lot of noise in the news since last week. The media caught wind that Twitter was entertaining buyout offers. This is not the first time we have heard of a possible Twitter acquisition. Last year, it was reported that Twitter buyout rumors at that time were actually fake. The stock price jumped back then too.

Nevertheless, I am bullish Twitter because I use it. I know the power of Twitter. It would not be possible to democratize finance without the birth and widespread use of Twitter in our business. It can been a better compliant tool than FINRA could’ve ever hoped. Too bad they don’t see that way and don’t know how to use it. And that is Twitter’s exact problem to begin with. Regular folks just don’t know how to use. I think it is largely because not enough employees use Twitter themselves so how can ever fully appreciate the inherent power that is Twitter? Let alone, teach others like them who don’t understand how to use it.

Twitter has a usability issue not a value issue. And until that wrong is righted, the stock price will continue to disappoint.

TWITTER DAILY CHART TWITTER WEEKLY CHART

Twitter, therefore, remains a very long-term investment. The stock has only been trading for 4 years so trying to determine where price is headed is really anyone’s guess. However, the charts are pointing to another move to the downside. And such a move targets the $15.70 lows or the $13.70 lows, depending on your timeframe. A close above $25 invalidates the bearish sentiment.

So the question you have to ask yourself is whether early investors are willing to hold stock at this current $20.00 price level? Earlier investors have been selling $TWTR stock as recently as 10 months ago. Ask yourself another question – the more important question: What kind of investor are you? That will dictate what you do here.