@faithmight, Author at FaithMight

October 17, 2019January 22, 2020

Merger Alert

Well not completely… But we are very excited to announce that I did a mini merger last week. FM Capital Group has merged its investment advisory services with Bay Street Capital Holdings, a Black-owned RIA based in Palo Alto. I am now Senior Investment Advisor at Bay Street Capital Holdings and Executive Director of FM Capital Group. FM Capital Group maintains its services for angel investors and educational services for traders.

I’ve actually been approached twice before about selling my firm. The reason I chose Bay Street is that 1) the firm is owned by a Black man, William Huston (who also went to GT and Vandy like me!) with 2) a mission to serve minority-owned (non-profit) organizations and family offices; 3) I get to maintain FM Capital Group; and 4) I’m going to learn A TON. This is an area of the market I’ve really wanted to break into – serving institutional clients – and the fact that Bay Street seeks out orgs that are run by minorities just really resonates with me.

2020 is already different! I’m excited about this next chapter for me and FM Capital Group!

July 31, 2019July 31, 2019

Extreme Positions

Too many shorts on the GBP pic.twitter.com/S38vL14VEC
— Walle Smith (@walesmit) July 30, 2019

Check out the positioning in the forex market as we were headed into today’s FOMC meeting. Though Walle Smith points out here the crowding into GBP shorts, look at the USD positioning last week as reported by the CFTC. In light of today’s 25bps rate cut, 2 dissenting FOMC members who wanted to hold on interest rates, and verbal confirmation during the press conference from Federal Reserve Governor Powell that there will be no cycle of interest rate cuts, the positioning in the market is not at all stretched. With all of that just happening, there was still room in the long USD trade. Which is very interesting when you look at the trends against the other major world currencies. The market has significant room before it even is considered crowded with long USD positions.

My take is that the Fed has pretty much given markets the green light with no real reason to sell the USD. And it is likely that the USD continues to move higher still.

July 30, 2019July 30, 2019

Reasons To Sell The Dollar

The USD has been relentless in its rally this year, particularly against the EUR, GBP, AUD, and NZD. WHY?

In case you missed it, the United States has the highest interest rates in the G7. Remember when, the top spot was held by Australia and New Zealand?
The Federal Reserve has not delivered an interest rate cut in over 10 years.
The United States is in its longest economic expansion on record. While we seem to witness blips of weakness in the data this year, economic releases from durable goods order to consumer confidence to inflation and GDP all point to a still robust American economy.

GBPUSD DAILY CHART — Nothing but USD dollar strength in response

Yeah, I don’t see any reason to sell the dollar either.

When the Federal Reserve finally delivers on all of the dovish rhetoric it has graced us all with since early 2018, the market will most certainly react by selling USD. The larger the cut, the larger the selloff because the market will be shocked at anything larger than a 50 basis points cut. But USD weakness won’t last without a strong statement from the Fed that signals more cuts to come. I’m not so sure that the fundamentals supports a cycle of rate cuts. Even this anticipated rate cut is debatable. Plus, the Fed has been unsuccessful at talking down the USD for over 2 years now. I doubt tomorrow’s meeting changes the market’s mind very much.

The $GBPUSD has had a great run this year and is now starting to probe the post-Brexit levels in 2016/17. Monday’s dumping of the $GBPUSD hit some major Fibonacci extension levels on the latest leg down. Now markets gear up for tomorrow’s announcement.

Trade what you see, not what I think.

Related reads:

Graph of U.S. interest rates (Forex Factory)
Greenspan says it’s sensible for the Fed to think about ‘insurance’ cut (MarketWatch)
Strong consumer spending vs. weak business investment: What really matters for the US economy (CNBC)

July 19, 2019January 22, 2020

ON THE AIR with CGTN

Back in January, I attended the African Diaspora Investment Symposium (#ADIS19). CGTN was there reporting on the investment scene in Silicon Valley for Africa. China is heavily invested in Africa already and Mark Niu was at ADIS19 to give report to Chinese viewers. He was thrilled to meet a women investing in Africa and I am really happy to be able to provide this point of view. As a Nigerian woman born in the Bay Area, I know that I have a very unique view of the investment opportunities in Nigeria. Thanks to technology and social media, my view has become more continental. I meet founders based all over Africa doing really good work. It is exciting times and Mark’s story came out well. Thanks Mark!

Watch it below!

Original story (CGTN)

July 9, 2019July 9, 2019

EURGBP Defies the Rules

I stand by corrections. A market ALWAYS corrects. ALWAYS. Nothing moves in a straight line. And the GBP, in particular. The GBP is highly likely to retrace price moves with a correction that moves to the Fibonacci retracement levels. But the $EURGBP has defied all of these adages. For over 2 months, the $EURGBP has impossibly moved in a straight line!

But if we drill down into this rally, the daily chart shows a correction that has actually moved higher. This currency pair has, indeed, experienced an correction. A correction through time rather than an actual correction through price (that would see a move lower). And when a currency pair cannot correct through price, it is extremely strong indication of the strength of the trend move.

So what could make the $EURGBP move into a correction lower? Perhaps a restart of the quantitative easing program by the European Central Bank? Perhaps. It would have to surprise markets so that fact that this is already being whispered means it is already being priced in. Maybe a quick Brexit deal that pleases all sides? Maybe but this is so unlikely it is improbable. With no real fundamental reason for a move to the downside, I expect the $EURGBP to continue to grind higher for another rally higher. The 0.9050 level is the next target for bulls with downside targets as the Fibonacci levels pictured above on the daily chart.

Related reads: ON THE AIR with F.A.C.E. (FaithMightFX)
ECB prepares for a second wave of quantitative easing (New Europe)

July 8, 2019July 8, 2019

ON THE AIR with F.A.C.E.

On Wednesday, July 3rd, an hour after my appearance the TD Ameritrade Network, I was back on the air with Dale Pinkert and the Forex Analytix Community (F.A.C.E.). We talked about the current breakdown in the Great British pound, looking specifically at levels of importance in the $EURGBP, $GBPUSD, $GBPCAD, $GBPNZD, and the $GBPAUD.

Dale is a veteran in the business and masterful interviewer. He asked some great questions about the trading courses that I have available and how clients fare with my investment advisory services. So you learn about that too!

Enjoy the show!

Related reads: My course with The Profit Room (FaithMightFX)
Invest with Lydia (FaithMightFX)

July 6, 2019July 6, 2019

ON THE AIR with FUTURES with Ben Lichtenstein

I kicked off the Fourth of July holiday on Wednesday, July 3rd with a special guest appearance on the TDA Network show, FUTURES with Ben Lichtenstein. It is fun talking to Ben about currency markets because he comes at it from a purely futures lens and I from a purely forex lens. For example, when we discuss the Australian dollar, he’ll say $6A_F and I’m actually referring to the $GBPAUD. I just love this juxtaposition and the insights we discuss as a result.

The central banks were front and center throughout my segment. The RBA might be done with interest rate hikes while the Federal Reserve probably cuts interest rates this month after all (see the Bloomberg story linked below) and the BoE figures out how to maneuver the latest Brexit drama. What does that mean for the summer forex market?

Watch the show below!

Lydia appears on TD Ameritrade Network — Click the image to watch

Related reads: Aussie About To Appreciate Against The US Dollar (FaithMightFX)
The Myth of the Tight U.S. Labor Market (Bloomberg)

May 24, 2019December 29, 2019

ON THE AIR with Futures with Ben Lichenstien

I ended the trading week this Friday morning on the TD Ameritrade Network talking as one of the guests on the Futures with Ben Lichenstein show. In light of the surprise resignation announcement of UK Prime Minister Theresa May hours before I went on, it isn’t any wonder that Ben and I discussed the Brexit, the implications of another prime minister resignation brought on by the Brexit, and what effects all of this will have on the forex markets.

We also talked about the rise of risk aversion in the markets and what that will mean for the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen as safe haven currencies. But the one safe haven that I did not mention this morning is the Swiss franc. Luckily, Dayo already wrote an analysis yesterday looking at the current trend in the $EURCHF. So read that and watch my interview below for an understanding of the new fundamental landscape in the forex markets heading into the summer trading months.

Lydia on TDA Network — Click the image to watch

May 23, 2019May 23, 2019

The Mindset for Venture Capital

Early stage VC is a marathon, not a sprint. That is true in everything, from the hold periods, to the work you do with a portfolio company, to the patience you must show towards a sector you think will be important. It is hard to sustain the enthusiasm sometimes, but if you have conviction about something, you have to stay the course.
AVC

Venture capital investing requires this mindset. Fred Wilson sums it up so perfectly with this quote. Individual investors like our clients only have access to venture investing in the very early stages of a company. That means the company may have a few thousand users. That means the company is very likely not making any money yet, let alone any profits. But what the company does have is a very good product that fills a need in market. The company has a strong team in place with the skills to build and sell the product. So an investment at this stage will require the patience, endurance and confidence to work with that company to fuel its growth through the ups and downs, the highs and lows.

The other side of this quote is this: DO. THE. WORK. Too many investors throw money at an investment and then ignore it. It is very easy to do as an angel investor. But, sadly, this is the biggest reason for shrinking portfolios. If you don’t know what your portfolio looks like, you can’t know how well it is performing. Venture investing almost requires that you do work as investors. Read company updates. Offer advice and connections for the executive leadership in your portfolio companies. Put yourself in position to invest again in the follow-on rounds that are inevitably coming. We believe that even investors have to know how a diversified portfolio works in this asset class as they do in any other. Venture capital investing can be as active or as passive as you make it. Just do the work.

As such, venture investing is not for every investor. But with education and capital, it is the smartest asset class for investing in the 21st century.

April 22, 2019January 22, 2020

ON THE AIR with Futures with Ben Lichenstein

I kicked off the new trading week this Monday morning on the TD Ameritrade Network talking as one of the guests on the Futures with Ben Lichenstein show. Ben and I discussed the full gamut of fundamentals in the forex market for the Australian dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen, the Great British pound and the U.S. dollar.

Enjoy the interview below!