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ON THE AIR with F.A.C.E.

The forex markets have been crap. And that’s just to say that for my trading style, I haven’t been able to trade much at all in the past several months. I know myself and I understand that the current market environment has not allowed me to trade my style. The major GBP pairs are all consolidating in the face of a now delayed Brexit, so there really hasn’t been much to do or say about the markets.

So I am thankful for the opportunity to make an appearance with Dale Pinkert and the Forex Analytix Community Experience (F.A.C.E.) during this time in the markets. I think it is important to share the ugly as well as the good in our process and to demonstrate that we don’t always make money at all times in trading. There are times when the best thing to do is really to do NO thing.

Enjoy!

If I can be of service to you, please do reach out. Happy trades!

The Jumia IPO is Here

Jumia IPO’d on Friday, April 12th on the New York Stock Exchange. When news of its IPO first hit the wires, it was hailed as Africa’s first tech IPO. I will admit that I immediately bought into the narrative.

After all, I knew that it was (at one point) run by 2 Nigerian founders, Tunde Kehinde and Raphael Afaedor, and that, of course, it serves entirely African markets. Sounds like an African company to me! And if an African tech startup can exhibit a viable exit for investors, this $JMIA story could only help funnel more interest and capital to the entire African ecosystem. That is why the story really excited me.

https://www.instagram.com/p/Bu7ufUGljET/
Skip to the last video??

But by their own admission, $JMIA is not an African company after all. They are not headquartered in Africa, but in Europe. The company was not founded by Kehinde and Afaedor. Rather, those guys were hired to run Rocket Internet’s new e-commerce business it created and named Jumia. Given this (new to me) information, Jumia is very clearly not an African company. And that is OK! I’m not sure why the current executives feel the need to co-opt a brand identity that is not theirs. (And before you go there, Rocket Internet is also a European company.)

Unfortunately, I believe this narrative actually hurts the African ecosystem more than it helps. Because venture capital is such a pattern seeking (copy cat) business model, non-white, non-male founders have historically had much difficulty securing much needed funding to expand their businesses. My initial thoughts were that an actual exit evidenced by this $JMIA IPO will help convince investors that startups on the continent are viable investments. However, $JMIA merely reinforces the stereotypes that white male executives of a company domiciled in the West are the business models worthy of investment. This couldn’t be further from the truth. 

I have been investing in African startups since 2012. And I am currently in stealth mode to expand this work on a larger scale. Stay away from African as an investment ecosystem if you want to. It only leaves more for me and mine. My friend and founder, Teddy Ruge, who of course opened my eyes to the real narrative around $JMIA sums it up best:

We keep building ??

Sources:

Jumia F-1 Statement (SEC)
Jumia investors may regret chasing an elusive dream (The Africa Report)

ON THE AIR with Futures with Ben Litchenstein

? I was back on the TD Ameritrade Network with the Futures with Ben Lichtenstein Show bright and early this morning ?? talking Bank of Canada, Brexit and the U.S. dollar. Ben always asks the tough questions providing a great interview of insights for viewers.

It looks like the Bank of Canada did, indeed, back down off their hawkish rhetoric as the Canadian dollar is weaker after the monetary policy announcment. The U.S. dollar is starting to react a bit to that poor U.S. trades number but the market will likely keep a muted reaction as it waits for the spotlight event of the week, the U.S. jobs number. Don’t forget about the Canadian jobs report released at the same time. Another weak economic report just may send the Canadian dollar over the cliff for good.

Watch my full segment below:

Lydia Idem on the Futures with Ben Litchenstein Show on the TD Ameritrade Network
Click the image to watch!

ON THE AIR with Benzinga #PreMarket Prep Show

I got to open up the new trading month of February with the guys at Benzinga, just after the release of the US jobs report. The headline number smashed market expectations with the U.S. economy adding 304,000 jobs in the month of January. However, the more interesting number is the decrease in hourly earnings, which is a key indicator of inflation for the Federal Reserve. It makes us wonder if the Fed is trying to get ahead of deflation with its surprise shift in monetary policy just days earlier.

We also discussed the Brexit, monetary policy and what this all could mean for the euro! (Yes, of course, we talked about the GBP too ??) Watch the full interview below!

ON THE AIR with Futures with Ben Lichtenstein

I closed out January back on the air live on TD Ameritrade Network’s show, Futures with Ben Lichtenstein. During my segment, I covered the surprise delivered by the Federal Reserve this week as they announced that they would not only shift away from gradual interest rate increases but that they would also maintain their balance sheet. This is a stark contrast from increasing rates AND unwinding quantitative easing. So on the show, we dissected the markets’ reaction to this news.

We also discussed Brexit, of course, and how Parliament is more to blame than Prime Minister Theresa May. What does all this mean for the USD and the GBP? Click to watch the segment below.

Lydia Idem on TD Ameritrade Network
Click to watch!

ON THE AIR with F.A.C.E.

For our first sterling chat of the year, Dale and I got right into my thoughts on Brexit given the upcoming vote in Parliament next week. Other highlights include:

  • What to do with those flash crash wicks?
  • USD weakness persisting but not gaining
  • Yen strength
  • Commodity currencies vs. GBP

Enjoy!

Mentioned: My 2019 Outlook (FaithMightFX)

My 2019 Outlook

Despite today’s New Year’s Eve rally, sterling has closed 2018 at some of the lowest levels seen since 1985. That’s not insignificant. And given that we still have Brexit drama, the U.S. government shutdown, crashing equity markets and tightening monetary policy even if through unconventional means, 2019 is not shaping up to be a bullish year for sterling.

GBPUSD DAILY CHART

PREDICTION: The $GBPUSD will continue to rally to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level pictured above at 1.2889. Because the markets like to be cruel, I can see it moving even higher to the 61.8% Fibonacci level. At that level, so close to the major psychological level at 1.3000, bears start to turn bullish and major stops get tested. Just when it seems like sterling will really make a bullish reversal, it will plummet to make new lows at 1.2250. Later in the first quarter as the Brexit deadline approaches, the 2016 Brexit referendum lows at 1.1950 (depending on your broker) will be probed. The market’s reaction to the Brexit deal that does finally materialize will determine where we go from there.

The euro celebrates 20 years this year! And its 20th birthday may be a good year for the euro, particularly against this GBP weakness. But the $EURGBP remains fairly rangebound to start the  new year. In fact, it has been rangebound since late 2017 after reaching new highs at 0.9306. However, it is a bullish range as this sideways action for the past 2 years has never managed to move low enough into the Fibonacci retracement levels on the weekly chart.

EURGBP WEEKLY CHART

PREDICTION: The $EURGBP continues to move higher. But it will be a grind and stair step higher as the markets contend with European politics in France, Italy and Great Britain. When the market finally resolves this 2-year long consolidation period, the $EURGBP will reach and break above the 0.9306 highs set back in 2017.

Equities rocked investors in 2018 when it did not deliver the Santa Claus rally that investors have come to rely on for the past 8 years. Instead, we were greeted with the worst Christmas stock market when the S&P closed down 2.71% on Christmas Eve falling to 2346. It was the worst Christmas Eve ever since 1985 when it fell 0.69%.

The 2400 level is a huge level in the S&P 500 ($SPX). This level marks the 2017 highs where price stalled, consolidated for a few months, and then barreled through that resistance to then new all-time highs. Those December lows mark a level of real support that I honestly have had my eye on since 2017. At that time, I expected a correction in price lower. Rather, it was a correction through time as bulls continued to buy the dips. This year, 2019, however, is a very different market.

S&P 500 DAILY CHART

PREDICTION: It seems any corrective bounce higher will remain below the lows at 2600. Above the 2600 level, equities may be ready to start a new bull market. But if it can’t hold above that level, I would look for $SPX to make new lows below the 2400 level. A break below the 2346 low sees price move to the 2132 support level.

A discussion on stocks is just not complete without a mention of bonds. After peaking in 2016, $TLT plummeted just 2 months later. The $TLT was in a free fall right to the 116 support level where it consolidated before moving lower. Many cried that bonds were in a bear market and they would be right, looking on short to midterm timeframes. But on the monthly chart, $TLT was still in a correction (albeit a very deep correction). As such, the 2018 lows were very important. They marked the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on the monthly chart. It would have sparked mad capitulation had that level been breached.

TLT MONTHLY CHART

PREDICTION: Now that price has moved back above the 116 support-turned-resistance level, $TLT looks well-supported to move much higher from current levels. I like a return to 130 in $TLT. A move above that psychological level clears the way to 132.25 where the market will have to make a decision. Depending on how investors are feeling about risk, price would need to hold above 132.25 for the bull move to continue higher and challenge the all-time highs at 140.13.

2018 was a year full of ups and downs. Nicely, most of those ups happened in my career. The downs last year really did make me stronger and propelled me in new directions that should be very good for the company and my career in 2019. Cheers to the new year! ?

Source: @cubewealth

2018: Our Year in Review

The top 9 moments of 2018 in FM Capital Group! We entered our 4th year of business this year, setting milestones all along the way.

The TOP 9 OF 2018 FOR FM CAPITAL GROUP

  1. Our first company event. It was small because I forgot to advertise it ????? lol but it was very well received.
  2. My first TV appearance! I was so nervous ?
  3. Fast forward to my last interview of the year and I did my absolute best work yet. I came a looooong way ?
  4. That first company event led to our infamous #1stfridayspasadena events. This last one was our largest turnout yet! ??
  5. New profile pic!! ?????
  6. I’m so pleased to announce that this year I sowed the seeds to raise a new venture capital fund that will make investments in Africa and Latin America. Stay tuned in 2019….
  7. Our first hire!
  8. Dayo’s first article for us and the first new author on the blog since I launched it 6 years ago.
  9. I have been blogging on the financial markets, and mostly the forex markets, for almost 10 years I am so pleased to announce that this body of work has culminated in a book deal! I was approached by my publisher earlier in December and I’m starting the work and journey to becoming an author. WOW! Stay tuned in 2019….

It’s been an amazing year. Cheers to 2019!?

ON THE AIR with FUTURES with Ben Lichtenstein

My last television appearance of 2018 was on the TD Ameritrade Network a few weeks ago. With the Bank of England (BoE) meeting on monetary policy this week, as well as the Federal Reserve, I thought it was a good idea to revisit some of the themes I discussed with Ben Lichtenstein on FUTURES.

The Brexit deal was certainly on the top of discussion but so was the U.S. dollar. The Federal Reserve is so highly expected to raise interest rates for the last time in 2018 but also give dovish guidance for monetary policy next year that the market is already headed into the event selling the USD. But I believe that this selling in the USD is merely market positioning for a very specific reason that is not being talked about right now. Watch the full interview below.

Lydia on TDA Network

ON THE AIR with F.A.C.E.

Last week, I had the pleasure to be back on the air with Dale Pinkert and the Forex Analytix Community Experience (F.A.C.E.) audience. We talked all things sterling as we always do. But I also spoke on persistence and patience in trading (especially in this market environment) as well as my thoughts on equity markets as we head into the end of the year.

Check out the full interview below. Enjoy!