USDJPY Archives - FaithMight

September 17, 2024September 17, 2024

USDJPY Reaches 2024 Low, Set To Rally

The Ninja popularly known as the USDJPY has been on a downward trend for the past 5 decades. Since the new millennium started, the Japanese Yen has gained more than the US Dollar. In the third quarter of the year 2011, the price of Ninja reached an all-time low at 75.784. From that all-time low in the third quarter of 2011, the US Dollar has been gaining against the yen. This rally has been sustained up until the 2024 high, which is a 112% gain in value, with the 2024 high at 161.923.

A 9-year resistance level of 126.435 was broken to the upside in April 2022 as a result of the above-mentioned rally. Also, a 34-year resistance level at 160.827 was broken to the upside as a result of this same powerful rally.

On the monthly chart, RSI has indicated that price has been overbought at two different times, namely the 2015 and 2022 resistance levels at 126.435 and 152.383 price-points respectively. The last two-month candlesticks closed bearish, but there are possibilities of price rallying to 146.784 in few weeks from the current price at 140.423 as at the time of this writing.

Some of these ideas are in our clients’ portfolios. To understand if this one can work for you or for help to invest your own wealth, talk to our advisors at FM Capital Group. Would you like more information on how to get currencies in your portfolio? Schedule a meeting with us here

October 17, 2022October 17, 2022

USDJPY Reaches New High Since 1990

Analysing the monthly chart of USDJPY between the years 1999 and 2016, an inverted head and shoulders was formed which could have been the determinant for the rally of the pair that began in January 2011. The all-time low of the USDJPY was reached in October 2011 at 75.513. Only six candlesticks on the monthly chart have closed bearish since the rally began in January 2021.

The candlesticks in the last two months on the monthly charts have closed bullish. USDJPY’s opening price in October 2022 was 141.672. The bullish momentum that has gathered in the last two month has been able to push the pair to a high in this month at 148.887 which was last hit in August 1990.

We might be seeing a price correction to 145 as RSI shows price has been overbought on the weekly chart.

September 6, 2022September 6, 2022

USDJPY rises above 140.00 for the first time since 1998

Looking at the monthly charts, the USDJPY pair shows an inverted head and shoulder pattern which could have led to its recent rally in favor of the US dollar. Generally, the USDJPY bulls have been on steroids post-lockdown.

Since the beginning of 2022, the US dollar has seen significant gains when compared to other currencies. Most of the monthly closes for USDJPY this year have been bullish. Earlier in the month of July 2022, USDJPY reached 139.00 for the first time since 1998. This rally has been sustained for the past two months. And yesterday, on the 1st of September 2022, the pair reached a new psychological level of 140.00.

RSI currently indicates that USDJPY is overbought on the monthly and weekly charts. This could lead to a massive loss in the value of the US dollar in the coming months. From our analysis, this means that USDJPY might fall to 130.00.

June 28, 2022June 28, 2022

USDJPY Reaches 136.00, First Time Since September 1998

On the USDJPY monthly chart, it took it 12 years for a head-and-shoulder pattern to be formed. The first shoulder was formed in 2004, followed by the head in 2011, and the second shoulder was formed in 2016. After the second shoulder was formed, price ranged for 6 years before a major rally started. Despite the lockdown across the world in 2020, the YEN only gained the USD with few pips.

For the past 12 years, the USD has shown to be a stronger currency. The lowest price of $USDJPY was $5.956 in February 2012. The current price is at 135.508. The highest value of USDJPY since 2002 has been 135.126. Price was able to surpass the 2022 high few days ago after price reached $136.822, the highest price since September 1998. A consolidation in price might occur has the USD dollar has been massively gaining against the Japanese yen since the beginning of 2021.

This expected price consolidation might make price fall, which could in favour of the YEN in the next few weeks. The price could be at 130.00

May 17, 2022May 26, 2022

USDJPY Reaches New High In 20 years

Looking at the Monthly chart, the lowest price ever that USDJPY reached was 75.486 which was in October 2011. This price became the support at that time and it lasted from that time up until February 2012. Price began to rally in February 2012 and USDJPY has been majorly bullish ever since then, with little pushback from the bears which occurred in 2016.

In 2015, resistance was established at 125.647 but this correction that occurred in 2016 caused a dip in price to 99.009. In 2017, the pair got caught in a range that stretched until 2021. The upper limit and the lower limit of the range were 118.382 and 101.162 respectively. In 2022, this range was cleared up and the price broke 2015 resistance, which reached a new high at 131.298 in April 2022. The last time USDJPY hit this mark was in April 2002.

As of May 17, 2022, USDJPY is at 129.346. On the daily, weekly, and monthly charts, RSI is overbought. This means that, from a technical analysis standpoint, price looks to fall below 127.500 in the coming days.

November 9, 2021November 9, 2021

USDJPY Broke Support Level After Weeks In Range

In October 2021, the $USDJPY pair closed above 113.830 since November 2018. Price closed at the highest level in the last 3 years at 114.358 on the 19th of October. $USDJPY has maintained its price around 102.862 since 2016. On the weekly chart, there are above 5 times in the last 5 years that price tried to touch and break the support, but it eventually led to a bounce. The most recent bounce occurred between December 2020 and January 2021. It has all been bullish for the $USDJPY in 2021. The trendline has been drawn from 2016 to 2021, which shows there is a breakout to the upside. This breakout of the trendline occurred in June 2021. RSI on the chart still shows that the price has been overbought in two different cases. Will this lead to price reversal?

The 4hr Chart has shown that price maintained a support level at 113.253 since a breakout to the upside occurred in the first two weeks of October 2021. Price has been raging between 113.253 and 114.655. The support level was broken to the downside this month. The breakout might be a fakeout, as the price is beginning to consolidate as USD has been gaining against JPY in the past few days. The price might appreciate to 113.690 in the coming weeks from its current 112.904

February 27, 2020February 27, 2020

ON THE AIR with FUTURES with Ben Lichtenstein

Last week, I was back on the air with Futures with Ben Lichtenstein. Since we are still in the new year season, it was a great segment that they produced as a trip around the world in currencies. Starting with the U.S. dollar, Ben and I talked about the fundamentals that are really driving currency flows in the market right now.

This morning, traders were greeted by news that the EU and UK trade talks are deteriorating. I actually mentioned this fundamental risk last week in my segment with Ben. Check out more of my thoughts on all the major currencies below. My accuracy coming to fruition this week is even amazing to me 🙂

Enjoy the show!

Lydia Idem on TDA NETWORK — Click to watch!

If you are interested in a primer on how to read charts, please check out the new course, CHARTS101.

July 31, 2019July 31, 2019

Extreme Positions

Too many shorts on the GBP pic.twitter.com/S38vL14VEC
— Walle Smith (@walesmit) July 30, 2019

Check out the positioning in the forex market as we were headed into today’s FOMC meeting. Though Walle Smith points out here the crowding into GBP shorts, look at the USD positioning last week as reported by the CFTC. In light of today’s 25bps rate cut, 2 dissenting FOMC members who wanted to hold on interest rates, and verbal confirmation during the press conference from Federal Reserve Governor Powell that there will be no cycle of interest rate cuts, the positioning in the market is not at all stretched. With all of that just happening, there was still room in the long USD trade. Which is very interesting when you look at the trends against the other major world currencies. The market has significant room before it even is considered crowded with long USD positions.

My take is that the Fed has pretty much given markets the green light with no real reason to sell the USD. And it is likely that the USD continues to move higher still.

May 24, 2019December 29, 2019

ON THE AIR with Futures with Ben Lichenstien

I ended the trading week this Friday morning on the TD Ameritrade Network talking as one of the guests on the Futures with Ben Lichenstein show. In light of the surprise resignation announcement of UK Prime Minister Theresa May hours before I went on, it isn’t any wonder that Ben and I discussed the Brexit, the implications of another prime minister resignation brought on by the Brexit, and what effects all of this will have on the forex markets.

We also talked about the rise of risk aversion in the markets and what that will mean for the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen as safe haven currencies. But the one safe haven that I did not mention this morning is the Swiss franc. Luckily, Dayo already wrote an analysis yesterday looking at the current trend in the $EURCHF. So read that and watch my interview below for an understanding of the new fundamental landscape in the forex markets heading into the summer trading months.

Lydia on TDA Network — Click the image to watch

April 22, 2019January 22, 2020

ON THE AIR with Futures with Ben Lichenstein

I kicked off the new trading week this Monday morning on the TD Ameritrade Network talking as one of the guests on the Futures with Ben Lichenstein show. Ben and I discussed the full gamut of fundamentals in the forex market for the Australian dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen, the Great British pound and the U.S. dollar.

Enjoy the interview below!